Dolphins 0 @ Ravens 1 000 000 - X
I wrote that I did not know what to expect from both those teams. This still holds true.
Vikings 33 @ Browns (+9.5) 16 - X
Did not see the game but apparently this Browns cover looked pretty good for a good long while. Oh well.
Falcons (-4.5) 25 @ Jets 20 - OK
The Falcons still aren't the 2016 Falcons, but still managed to cover.
Panthers (+2) 17 @ Bucs 3 - OK
Bears 12 @ Saints (-9) 20 - X
Surprising that Brees threw for almost 300 yards on 80% + efficiency and he still did not throw a TD.
Colts (+11) 23 @ Bengals 24 - OK
Chargers 13@ Patriots 21 (-6.5) - OK
Raiders 14 @ Bills (-2.5) 34 - OK
I think people got way too high on the Raiders after that weird win against the Chiefs. They still aren't a very good team and the Bills are mostly underrated. They're not that far behind the Pats/Chiefs/Steelers trio as far as I'm concerned.
49ers 10 @ Eagles (-13) 33 - OK
Now that Zeke is definitely out for 6 games and we have one of the easiest sleights of games going forward, I firmly believe we should be tops or near the top of the NFC for the playoffs.
Texans 38 @ Seahawks (-5.5) 41 - X
What a ridiculous scoreline.
Cowboys 33 @ Redskins (+2) 19 - X
Steelers 20 @ Lions (+3) 15 - X
That really should have been a cover, if not a win, for the Lions.
Broncos 19 @ Chiefs (-7.0) 29 - OK
This week: 7-6
Season so far: 51-66-2
Tuesday, October 31, 2017
Wednesday, October 25, 2017
NFL Lines - Week 8 predictions
Dolphins (+3) @ Ravens
I honestly don't know what to expect anymore from either those teams. I would never put money on that game.
Vikings @ Browns (+9.5)
Seems a tad too high.
Falcons (-4.5) @ Jets
Panthers (+2) @ Bucs
Bears @ Saints (-9)
Colts (+11) @ Bengals
The Colts aren't good and should definitely fire their head coach. However, the Bengals aren't great either and 11 points seems high.
Chargers @ Patriots (-6.5)
Just low enough. At 7 or more I would have picked the Chargers to cover.
Raiders @ Bills (-2.5)
49ers @ Eagles (-13)
That's really high. I would have never guessed that we'd be favorites by 13 points at any points this season. I mean, yes we're playing great, but we're really flawed in a few aspects of the game. Our QB and our world class D-Line has brought us to 6-1, but I would expect our Pythagorean wins to be at least 15% lower. I can't find it after a quick google search, but Football Outsiders has our total of expecting wins at 5.4. We are good, I'm not denying that, but I need to see more from us to say if we're actually the best team in the NFC, let alone the NFL.
Texans @ Seahawks (-5.5)
Cowboys @ Redskins (+2)
I'm still a believer in the Redskins. I think they are better than the Cowboys and honestly can't believe they are underdogs at home.
Steelers @ Lions (+3)
Broncos @ Chiefs (-7.0)
After a tough loss and a longer rest, my guess is that the Chiefs will come out firing on all cylinders.
Season so far: 44-60-2
I honestly don't know what to expect anymore from either those teams. I would never put money on that game.
Vikings @ Browns (+9.5)
Seems a tad too high.
Falcons (-4.5) @ Jets
Panthers (+2) @ Bucs
Bears @ Saints (-9)
Colts (+11) @ Bengals
The Colts aren't good and should definitely fire their head coach. However, the Bengals aren't great either and 11 points seems high.
Chargers @ Patriots (-6.5)
Just low enough. At 7 or more I would have picked the Chargers to cover.
Raiders @ Bills (-2.5)
49ers @ Eagles (-13)
That's really high. I would have never guessed that we'd be favorites by 13 points at any points this season. I mean, yes we're playing great, but we're really flawed in a few aspects of the game. Our QB and our world class D-Line has brought us to 6-1, but I would expect our Pythagorean wins to be at least 15% lower. I can't find it after a quick google search, but Football Outsiders has our total of expecting wins at 5.4. We are good, I'm not denying that, but I need to see more from us to say if we're actually the best team in the NFC, let alone the NFL.
Texans @ Seahawks (-5.5)
Cowboys @ Redskins (+2)
I'm still a believer in the Redskins. I think they are better than the Cowboys and honestly can't believe they are underdogs at home.
Steelers @ Lions (+3)
Broncos @ Chiefs (-7.0)
After a tough loss and a longer rest, my guess is that the Chiefs will come out firing on all cylinders.
Season so far: 44-60-2
Tuesday, October 24, 2017
NFL Lines - Week 7 results
Chiefs (-3) 30 @ Raiders 31 - X
What a bizarre and unpleasant finish if you were rooting for the Chiefs. I'm not saying the penalties weren't warranted or anything of the sort, but it was frustrating to watch, thinking a team had won twice before seeing that yellow flash on the screen. The Raiders proved more resilient than I had expected. I don't know what that means for their season (they're still 3-4), but it had to be their best game of the season, right?
Buccaneers 27 @ Bills (-3) 30 - PUSH
Cardinals 0 @ Rams (-3.5) 33 - OK
Ouch.
Ravens 16 @ Vikings (-6) 24 - OK
Panthers (-6) 3 @ Bears 17 - X
One surprising result. Even more surprising here is that the two touchdowns were defensive ones and that the winning QB completed 4 passes.
Jaguars 27 @ Colts (+3) 0 - X
Another shutout. Those early games were dreadful.
Saints 26 @ Packers (+5.5) 17 - X
Jets 28 @ Dolphins (-3) 31 - PUSH
Titans (-5.5) 12 @ Browns 9 - X
Hey the Browns covered!
Cowboys 40 @ 49ers (+6) 10 - X
Bengals 14 @ Steelers (-5.5) 29 - OK
Broncos (+1) 0 @ Chargers 21 - X
A third shutout by 20+ points. Oh my.
Seahawks 24 @ Giants (+5.5) 7 - X
Falcons (+3.5) 7 @ Patriots 24 - X
That Falcons offense doesn't look right. I'm far from a football expert, but some play calls felt strange, and quite often ineffective. Even if he had a relatively good completion %, Matt Ryan did miss many open receivers. The pressure from the Pats line was good, but the coverage wasn't that great, and very offense incompletions were due to Ryan overshooting the receiver or, for that Julio Jones attempt in the end zone, too close to the DB. Not taking anything away from the Pats. They played better than I've seen them on defense all year (which is not saying much, to be honest). Did not watch all their games, but from the 3-4 I saw it was their best performance. Yet I'm still not convinced because of how many open receivers there were.
Redskins @ Eagles (-4.5)
Oh man, this game started off so terribly. Out of the first 3 offensive plays we ran, we managed to have 4 penalties called against us. I was thinking "Oh man, this is going to be one of those games, isn't it?". I was prepared for the worst. Then my team showed that perhaps they really were a Super Bowl contender. Our D-Line is extremely talented and makes up for an average secondary. Sadly we lost one of our best LBs in Hicks. In any case, our D was very solid the whole game against an always-underrated Kirk Cousins. It amazes me that this guy is still looked upon as an average QB when he's definitely top 10 in my book. Talking about top QBs in the League, Wentz looked like a freaking Hall of Fame-bound quarterback yesterday. It was amazing. The pick early was stupid, but the rest of the game he was absolutely outstanding. Two plays stand out to me. There's that Houdini trick when he evaded what looked like a surefire sack to run for 17 yards and save a very vital drive. The other one was the TD throw to Clement in the corner of the end zone. It was a fantastically difficult play to pull off under pressure. He's so poised and controlled, and he can pull off plays out of nowhere, it's Aaron Rodgers-esque. Obviously he's FAR from being Rodgers as a second-year QB, but he shows so many flashes of brilliance it's hard not to get excited, even for a mostly apprehensive fan like me.
This week: 4-9-2
Season so far: 44-60-2
Man, this whole thing is really falling apart isn't it? At least the Eagles are winning.
What a bizarre and unpleasant finish if you were rooting for the Chiefs. I'm not saying the penalties weren't warranted or anything of the sort, but it was frustrating to watch, thinking a team had won twice before seeing that yellow flash on the screen. The Raiders proved more resilient than I had expected. I don't know what that means for their season (they're still 3-4), but it had to be their best game of the season, right?
Buccaneers 27 @ Bills (-3) 30 - PUSH
Cardinals 0 @ Rams (-3.5) 33 - OK
Ouch.
Ravens 16 @ Vikings (-6) 24 - OK
Panthers (-6) 3 @ Bears 17 - X
One surprising result. Even more surprising here is that the two touchdowns were defensive ones and that the winning QB completed 4 passes.
Jaguars 27 @ Colts (+3) 0 - X
Another shutout. Those early games were dreadful.
Saints 26 @ Packers (+5.5) 17 - X
Jets 28 @ Dolphins (-3) 31 - PUSH
Titans (-5.5) 12 @ Browns 9 - X
Hey the Browns covered!
Cowboys 40 @ 49ers (+6) 10 - X
Bengals 14 @ Steelers (-5.5) 29 - OK
Broncos (+1) 0 @ Chargers 21 - X
A third shutout by 20+ points. Oh my.
Seahawks 24 @ Giants (+5.5) 7 - X
Falcons (+3.5) 7 @ Patriots 24 - X
That Falcons offense doesn't look right. I'm far from a football expert, but some play calls felt strange, and quite often ineffective. Even if he had a relatively good completion %, Matt Ryan did miss many open receivers. The pressure from the Pats line was good, but the coverage wasn't that great, and very offense incompletions were due to Ryan overshooting the receiver or, for that Julio Jones attempt in the end zone, too close to the DB. Not taking anything away from the Pats. They played better than I've seen them on defense all year (which is not saying much, to be honest). Did not watch all their games, but from the 3-4 I saw it was their best performance. Yet I'm still not convinced because of how many open receivers there were.
Redskins @ Eagles (-4.5)
Oh man, this game started off so terribly. Out of the first 3 offensive plays we ran, we managed to have 4 penalties called against us. I was thinking "Oh man, this is going to be one of those games, isn't it?". I was prepared for the worst. Then my team showed that perhaps they really were a Super Bowl contender. Our D-Line is extremely talented and makes up for an average secondary. Sadly we lost one of our best LBs in Hicks. In any case, our D was very solid the whole game against an always-underrated Kirk Cousins. It amazes me that this guy is still looked upon as an average QB when he's definitely top 10 in my book. Talking about top QBs in the League, Wentz looked like a freaking Hall of Fame-bound quarterback yesterday. It was amazing. The pick early was stupid, but the rest of the game he was absolutely outstanding. Two plays stand out to me. There's that Houdini trick when he evaded what looked like a surefire sack to run for 17 yards and save a very vital drive. The other one was the TD throw to Clement in the corner of the end zone. It was a fantastically difficult play to pull off under pressure. He's so poised and controlled, and he can pull off plays out of nowhere, it's Aaron Rodgers-esque. Obviously he's FAR from being Rodgers as a second-year QB, but he shows so many flashes of brilliance it's hard not to get excited, even for a mostly apprehensive fan like me.
This week: 4-9-2
Season so far: 44-60-2
Man, this whole thing is really falling apart isn't it? At least the Eagles are winning.
Thursday, October 19, 2017
NFL Lines - Week 7 predictions
Chiefs (-3) @ Raiders
This might another good TNF, but now we're not even sure the Raiders are good. It's a division matchup, on a short week, and the best team here is by far the Chiefs. Chiefs it is!
Bucs @ Bills (-3)
Cardinals @ Rams (-3.5)
Ravens @ Vikings (-6)
Panthers (-6) @ Bears
Jaguars @ Colts (+3)
Saints @ Packers (+5.5)
Jets @ Dolphins (-3)
Titans (-5.5) @ Browns
I was about to pick the Browns as home underdogs as I wasn't totally convinced by the Titans. Then I realized the Browns are 1-5 against the spread this season and are straight up 0-6.
Cowboys @ 49ers (+6)
They keep their games really close. They might actually pull this one out and make me a happy man.
Bengals @ Steelers (-5.5)
Broncos (+1) @ Chargers
Seahawks @ Giants (+5.5)
Falcons (+3.5) @ Patriots
The Pats are 1-5 against the spread and have struggled mightily against the Jets, who are certainly not known for their high-powered offense. The Falcons, while not exactly running on all cylinders as of right now, are perhaps the best offense encountered by New England since Week 1.
Redskins @ Eagles (-4.5)
Oh man that first Redskins game was tough. I'm predicting this one will be close as well, but I feel we come out on top again.
Season so far: 40-51
This might another good TNF, but now we're not even sure the Raiders are good. It's a division matchup, on a short week, and the best team here is by far the Chiefs. Chiefs it is!
Bucs @ Bills (-3)
Cardinals @ Rams (-3.5)
Ravens @ Vikings (-6)
Panthers (-6) @ Bears
Jaguars @ Colts (+3)
Saints @ Packers (+5.5)
Jets @ Dolphins (-3)
Titans (-5.5) @ Browns
I was about to pick the Browns as home underdogs as I wasn't totally convinced by the Titans. Then I realized the Browns are 1-5 against the spread this season and are straight up 0-6.
Cowboys @ 49ers (+6)
They keep their games really close. They might actually pull this one out and make me a happy man.
Bengals @ Steelers (-5.5)
Broncos (+1) @ Chargers
Seahawks @ Giants (+5.5)
Falcons (+3.5) @ Patriots
The Pats are 1-5 against the spread and have struggled mightily against the Jets, who are certainly not known for their high-powered offense. The Falcons, while not exactly running on all cylinders as of right now, are perhaps the best offense encountered by New England since Week 1.
Redskins @ Eagles (-4.5)
Oh man that first Redskins game was tough. I'm predicting this one will be close as well, but I feel we come out on top again.
Season so far: 40-51
Wednesday, October 18, 2017
NBA Wins Over/Under 2017-18
Last season, I got a very respectable 18 predictions right, for a 60% rate of success. I'd like to maintain that high percentage this year, but already I don't feel as good about many of those picks as I remember feeling last year.
Some texts might come later but the OVER/UNDER call is (now) set in stone.
Eastern Conference
Atlanta Hawks - 25.5 - OVER
Boston Celtics - 55.5 - UNDER
This is an ambitious number. I think Stevens will do as good a job as anyone would with such a new roster from one year to the next. There will be a lot of bumps in the road figuring out lineups and how to play together.
(DISCLAIMER, this was written before Hayward's injury, an injury that makes me f**king sad. I love Hayward and hopes he recovers 100% from that injury that I still haven't watched because I'm not watching that type of injury ever if I can avoid it).
Brooklyn Nets - 27.5 - OVER
Charlotte Hornets - 42.5 - OVER
Chicago Bulls - 22 - UNDER
That's very low, but we all know the Bulls aren't trying to win games and will achieve that goal quite easily.
Cleveland Cavaliers - 53.5 - UNDER
I don't see the same growing pains as I'm seeing with Boston, but I see an even worse defense than last season when they were horrendous. Isiah and Rose are bad defenders. Wade is old and won't be playing a lot. LeBron is LeCoast until the playoffs and clearly doesn't give a crap about the standings.
Detroit Pistons - 38.5 - UNDER
Hard one. I have a lot of respect for Stan Van Gundy as a coach, as I firmly believe he's in the top 6-7 coaches in the league. But I do no trust Jackson or Drummond. Not one bit.
Indiana Pacers - 31.5 - OVER
Miami Heat - 43.5 - UNDER
I feel alone thinking the Heat are not as good as so many experts and journalists make them out to be.
Milwaukee Bucks - 47.5 - UNDER
Feels 2-3 wins too high. Mid 40s makes more sense to me.
New York Knicks - 30.5 - UNDER
Orlando Magic - 33.5 - UNDER
How? How is it so high?
Philadelphia 76ers - 41.5 - OVER
Yes, this is not a rational take on the 76ers. They're more likely to go 36-46 than 42-40. This is wishful thinking from a very hopeful fan. The ceiling is clearly the low-mid 40s in a very weak conference. But it can all go wrong and they might win 34 games only as well. The future is bright though, that I'm certain about.
Toronto Raptors - 48.5 - UNDER
Washington Wizards - 48 - OVER
Western Conference
Dallas Mavericks - 35.5 - UNDER
Denver Nuggets - 45.5 - OVER
Golden State Warriors - 67.5 - OVER
How high would this number have to be to think about going under? 69.5 maybe? This tells me how "unfair" this team feels.
Houston Rockets - 55.5 - UNDER
Los Angeles Clippers - 43.5 - UNDER
Los Angeles Lakers - 33.5 - OVER
Memphis Grizzlies - 37.5 - OVER
Minnesota Timberwolves - 48.5 - OVER
New Orleans Pelicans - 39.5 - OVER
Oklahoma City Thunder - 52 - OVER
Phoenix Suns - 29 - UNDER
Portland Trail Blazers - 42.5 - UNDER
Sacramento Kings - 27.5 - UNDER
San Antonio Spurs - 54.5 - OVER
I am thoroughly baffled that people pick against the Spurs in this case. I mean it's possible, but I'm never betting against Pop in those situations.
Utah Jazz - 41 - OVER
Some texts might come later but the OVER/UNDER call is (now) set in stone.
Eastern Conference
Atlanta Hawks - 25.5 - OVER
Boston Celtics - 55.5 - UNDER
This is an ambitious number. I think Stevens will do as good a job as anyone would with such a new roster from one year to the next. There will be a lot of bumps in the road figuring out lineups and how to play together.
(DISCLAIMER, this was written before Hayward's injury, an injury that makes me f**king sad. I love Hayward and hopes he recovers 100% from that injury that I still haven't watched because I'm not watching that type of injury ever if I can avoid it).
Brooklyn Nets - 27.5 - OVER
Charlotte Hornets - 42.5 - OVER
Chicago Bulls - 22 - UNDER
That's very low, but we all know the Bulls aren't trying to win games and will achieve that goal quite easily.
Cleveland Cavaliers - 53.5 - UNDER
I don't see the same growing pains as I'm seeing with Boston, but I see an even worse defense than last season when they were horrendous. Isiah and Rose are bad defenders. Wade is old and won't be playing a lot. LeBron is LeCoast until the playoffs and clearly doesn't give a crap about the standings.
Detroit Pistons - 38.5 - UNDER
Hard one. I have a lot of respect for Stan Van Gundy as a coach, as I firmly believe he's in the top 6-7 coaches in the league. But I do no trust Jackson or Drummond. Not one bit.
Indiana Pacers - 31.5 - OVER
Miami Heat - 43.5 - UNDER
I feel alone thinking the Heat are not as good as so many experts and journalists make them out to be.
Milwaukee Bucks - 47.5 - UNDER
Feels 2-3 wins too high. Mid 40s makes more sense to me.
New York Knicks - 30.5 - UNDER
Orlando Magic - 33.5 - UNDER
How? How is it so high?
Philadelphia 76ers - 41.5 - OVER
Yes, this is not a rational take on the 76ers. They're more likely to go 36-46 than 42-40. This is wishful thinking from a very hopeful fan. The ceiling is clearly the low-mid 40s in a very weak conference. But it can all go wrong and they might win 34 games only as well. The future is bright though, that I'm certain about.
Toronto Raptors - 48.5 - UNDER
Washington Wizards - 48 - OVER
Western Conference
Dallas Mavericks - 35.5 - UNDER
Denver Nuggets - 45.5 - OVER
Golden State Warriors - 67.5 - OVER
How high would this number have to be to think about going under? 69.5 maybe? This tells me how "unfair" this team feels.
Houston Rockets - 55.5 - UNDER
Los Angeles Clippers - 43.5 - UNDER
Los Angeles Lakers - 33.5 - OVER
Memphis Grizzlies - 37.5 - OVER
Minnesota Timberwolves - 48.5 - OVER
New Orleans Pelicans - 39.5 - OVER
Oklahoma City Thunder - 52 - OVER
Phoenix Suns - 29 - UNDER
Portland Trail Blazers - 42.5 - UNDER
Sacramento Kings - 27.5 - UNDER
San Antonio Spurs - 54.5 - OVER
I am thoroughly baffled that people pick against the Spurs in this case. I mean it's possible, but I'm never betting against Pop in those situations.
Utah Jazz - 41 - OVER
Tuesday, October 17, 2017
NFL Lines - Week 6 Results
Eagles @ Panthers (-3.5) 23 - X
Bears 27 @ Ravens (-6.5) 24 - X
Browns 17 @ Texans (-10) 33 - OK
Packers 10 @ Vikings (+3) 23 - OK
Yes, I "won" this one, but I don't feel good about it. I despise injuries.
Lions 38 @ Saints (-4.5) 52 - OK
WTF happened here?
Dolphins 20 @ Falcons (-12) 17 - X
The most surprising result of week? Most certainly.
Patriots 24 @ Jets (+10) 17 - OK
Fuck everything about that call in the end zone. Not a single person with half a brain thinks that ball belonged to the Pats after that play. I don't like the Jets, I don't care about the Pats but I was (and still am, thinking about it) livid about that decision.
49ers (+10.5) 24 @ Redskins 26 - OK
Losing 5 games in a row by a total of 13 points. That's amazing.
Buccaneers (-2.5) 33 @ Cardinals 38 - X
Fun, but stupid note from this game. During the week I decided to drop a underperforming WR in fantasy. I saw J. Brown available and jumped on him. I had completely forgotten the Cards had two players named J. Brown and I got Jaron instead of John. To be fair Jaron had a few great weeks beforehand, so it's not like they were polar opposites or anything.
Rams 27 @ Jaguars (-2.5) 17 - X
Every time I decide to trust the Jaguars, they get beat. If I don't trust them, they blow up the other team. I'm not very good at this.
Every time I decide to trust the Jaguars, they get beat. If I don't trust them, they blow up the other team. I'm not very good at this.
Steelers 19 @ Chiefs (-5) 13 - X
I severely underestimated the Steelers defense. Holy crap they are solid. And it seems like Bell's preseason is over and he's ready to play.
Chargers 17 @ Raiders (-3) 16 - X
Disclaimer, I thought here the Raiders would be slight favorites as there was no line last week as I typed the predictions. They were. I picked them before the game but did not edit the post. You'll have to trust me on this!
Man I trust the Raiders way more than I should. I think every one of their game this year I've guessed wrong. I'm starting to think last year was almost a fluke.
Man I trust the Raiders way more than I should. I think every one of their game this year I've guessed wrong. I'm starting to think last year was almost a fluke.
Giants 23 @ Broncos 10 (-12) - X
I did not finish this game, but my first thought was that the Broncos offense produce some good stuff (almost 400 yards passing) but couldn't close out their drives. Sometimes it was because of good Giants D, sometimes they missed FGs (twice, in fact). Impressive win by the Giants, but I don't think it means anything in the grand scheme of things.
Colts (+7.5) 22 @ Titans 36 - X
Disclaimer, there was no line this past week. I wrote that the Titans would be favorite by a few points (in my head, between 3-6). When I saw the 7.5 line, I picked the Colts but did not edit the post. You'll have to trust me on this.
I felt good about the Colts for most of the game, then it all unraveled when it mattered.
Week 6 results: 5-9 so far
I felt good about the Colts for most of the game, then it all unraveled when it mattered.
Week 6 results: 5-9 so far
2017 season so far: 40-51
Thursday, October 12, 2017
NFL Lines - Week 6 predictions
Eagles @ Panthers (-3.5)
Wait, will the best game of the week really be on a Thursday Night? Looking at this week's sleight, it really does look like it. Steelers @ Chiefs could be good, but Big Ben was so f***ing terrible last week I'm not sure anymore.
Bears @ Ravens (-6.5)
That seems about right. I have a feeling this might be a very low scoring game, like 17-10 or along those lines. Two offenses that can't get going and two solid, if not very solid, defenses.
Browns @ Texans (-10)
Losing Watt and Mercilus is terrible for the Texans. Against the lowly Browns, their offense should be good enough. But their defense will most certainly struggle against better offenses in the future (hot take!).
Packers @ Vikings (+3)
That's actually a very interesting matchup.
Lions @ Saints (-4.5)
Dolphins @ Falcons (-12)
Patriots @ Jets (+10)
Got into an argument this week with one of my buddies who happens to be a Pats fan (weird people all over, right?) on a group chat. One other friend and I were simply defending the fact that this line was too high (it was -11 Pats at that moment). I believe my friend thought we were saying the Pats were bad or were going to lose that game (probably not) or that they weren't SB contenders (they are) or whatnot, because he got really defensive and spat out arguments and facts that had almost no relation to the line. It was a bit surreal. All we were saying is that from a gambling standpoint, this line was too high considering the teams in play. Clearly one can think this line can be too high and that the Pats are still SB contenders at the same time, which is my case. The Pats should definitely be favorites, only I believe it should be somewhere between 7.5 and 8.5. That does not mean they can't win by 32 (which they very well might), it just means I feel the line is too high. We all have that one friend who can't handle criticism directed at a favorite team or player and takes it as a personal attack. Oh well.
49ers (+10.5) @ Redskins
That's a much tougher one to call than I would have thought. I feel the Redskins are a good team, most likely a playoff contender. Opposing them are the 0-5 49ers. Makes sense that the line is double digit, right? Not so fast. The 49ers are in every single game, having lost the past 4 games by a total of 11 points. They'll stay relatively close here as well.
Buccaneers (-2.5) @ Cardinals
Rams @ Jaguars (-2.5)
Surprisingly, the Jags lead the NFL in point differential thanks to large margins of victory. At the same time, are they really as good as that stat indicates? I don't know, but this line is low enough that I'm willing to "risk" it.
Steelers @ Chiefs (-5)
Surprisingly low line here. The Steelers seem to get a lot of residual respect from Vegas even after being destroyed on their home field by Jacksonville. The Chiefs are clearly the superior team though.
Chargers @ Raiders
No line! I'm guessing the Raiders are favorite by 4-5 points (without Carr) and I'd take them here.
Giants @ Broncos (-12)
That game should have been a good one. It almost certainly won't be. A struggling quarterback with a depleted receiving corps against the best pass defense in the league. Yikes.
Colts @ Titans
No line! I'm thinking the Titans should be slight favorites here as well.
2017 season so far: 35-42
Tuesday, October 10, 2017
NFL Lines - Week 5 results
Patriots 19 @ Bucs (+6) 14 - OK
Bills (+3) 16 @ Bengals 20 - X
Jets 17 @ Browns (-1) 14 - X
Panthers 27 @ Lions (-2.5) 24 - X
I'm guessing the Panthers are indeed back in contending form.
49ers (+1) 23 @ Colts 26 - X
Titans (-1) 10 @ Dolphins 16 - X
Chargers 27 @ Giants (-3) 22 - X
I'm willing to bet this would have gone differently if OBJ (and 42908 Giants players) hadn't fallen to injuries. Man, I know I'm supposed to want the Giants to lose as an Eagles fan, but this is just terrible.
Cardinals 7 @ Eagles (-6.5) 34 - OK
A rare good call by me this week. It was over after a quarter and Carson Wentz is indubitably the greatest quarterback and athlete in human history.
Jaguars 30 @ Steelers (-8) 9 - X
I do not believe I called either of those two teams' games right this year. I just can't understand what's going on. I don't think the Jaguars are that good, but the Steelers are certainly not contenders in the AFC if they keep playing like that. Man, that was a horrible display.
Seahawks 16 @ Rams (-1) 10 - X
Not convinced by this win for Seattle. Sure, the defense is extremely solid, but the offensive line is still incredibly shite.
Ravens 30 @ Raiders (-2.5) 17 - X
Packers (+2) 35 @ Cowboys 31 - OK
Chiefs (-1.5) 42 @ Texans 34 - OK
Man, the Texans just don't go away. Even against the best team in the NFL, it never did feel like the game was completely over.
Vikings 20 (-3.5) @ Bears 17 - X
Third game that ended within a point of the spread. It wasn't pretty on offense, but defense definitely shone.
This week: 4-10
2017 season so far: 35-42
Bills (+3) 16 @ Bengals 20 - X
Jets 17 @ Browns (-1) 14 - X
Panthers 27 @ Lions (-2.5) 24 - X
I'm guessing the Panthers are indeed back in contending form.
49ers (+1) 23 @ Colts 26 - X
Titans (-1) 10 @ Dolphins 16 - X
Chargers 27 @ Giants (-3) 22 - X
I'm willing to bet this would have gone differently if OBJ (and 42908 Giants players) hadn't fallen to injuries. Man, I know I'm supposed to want the Giants to lose as an Eagles fan, but this is just terrible.
Cardinals 7 @ Eagles (-6.5) 34 - OK
A rare good call by me this week. It was over after a quarter and Carson Wentz is indubitably the greatest quarterback and athlete in human history.
Jaguars 30 @ Steelers (-8) 9 - X
I do not believe I called either of those two teams' games right this year. I just can't understand what's going on. I don't think the Jaguars are that good, but the Steelers are certainly not contenders in the AFC if they keep playing like that. Man, that was a horrible display.
Seahawks 16 @ Rams (-1) 10 - X
Not convinced by this win for Seattle. Sure, the defense is extremely solid, but the offensive line is still incredibly shite.
Ravens 30 @ Raiders (-2.5) 17 - X
Packers (+2) 35 @ Cowboys 31 - OK
Chiefs (-1.5) 42 @ Texans 34 - OK
Man, the Texans just don't go away. Even against the best team in the NFL, it never did feel like the game was completely over.
Vikings 20 (-3.5) @ Bears 17 - X
Third game that ended within a point of the spread. It wasn't pretty on offense, but defense definitely shone.
This week: 4-10
2017 season so far: 35-42
Friday, October 6, 2017
NFL Lines - Week 5 predictions
Patriots @ Bucs (+6)
When the biggest Boston homer (who admittedly tends to try to reverse-jinx his team) I know about says this line is too high for the Pats, you know it's too high. New England might very well start playing like actual contenders this week, but I'm not 100% positive that will happen. I'm certainly not trusting the Bucs just yet, but being 6 points underdogs at home against the worst defense in many years is just wrong.
Bills (+3) @ Bengals
While the Bengals woke up last week, it was against the Browns. Therefore, I can't put too much credit into that performance.
Jets @ Browns (-1)
Panthers @ Lions (-2.5)
Two teams I'm still trying to figure out. Are the Panthers "back" or were they merely playing against a terrible defense? By almost any measure, the Lions should be 4-0.
49ers (+1) @ Colts
Titans (-1) @ Dolphins
Chargers @ Giants (-3)
Cardinals @ Eagles (-6.5)
Oh man I'm excited for this one. Not because I think the Cardinals are a walkover, but because this Eagles team is simply exciting if they can run the ball like they did last week. Sadly we're missing many pieces on defense and that could mean Fitz running all over us. But Carson Palmer is prone to poopy performances here and there.
Jaguars @ Steelers (-8)
Seahawks @ Rams (-1)
One of the best games of the weekend. Easily. Really pumped for this one, as the Rams are closer and closer to be considered "for real".
Ravens @ Raiders (-2.5)
Packers (+2) @ Cowboys
Chiefs (-1.5) @ Texans
For my money, the best game this weekend. Happily, it's also SNF and it's a National holiday (Canada) on Monday. I'm incredibly excited for this game.
Vikings (-3.5) @ Bears
2017 season so far: 31-32
When the biggest Boston homer (who admittedly tends to try to reverse-jinx his team) I know about says this line is too high for the Pats, you know it's too high. New England might very well start playing like actual contenders this week, but I'm not 100% positive that will happen. I'm certainly not trusting the Bucs just yet, but being 6 points underdogs at home against the worst defense in many years is just wrong.
Bills (+3) @ Bengals
While the Bengals woke up last week, it was against the Browns. Therefore, I can't put too much credit into that performance.
Jets @ Browns (-1)
Panthers @ Lions (-2.5)
Two teams I'm still trying to figure out. Are the Panthers "back" or were they merely playing against a terrible defense? By almost any measure, the Lions should be 4-0.
49ers (+1) @ Colts
Titans (-1) @ Dolphins
Chargers @ Giants (-3)
Cardinals @ Eagles (-6.5)
Oh man I'm excited for this one. Not because I think the Cardinals are a walkover, but because this Eagles team is simply exciting if they can run the ball like they did last week. Sadly we're missing many pieces on defense and that could mean Fitz running all over us. But Carson Palmer is prone to poopy performances here and there.
Jaguars @ Steelers (-8)
Seahawks @ Rams (-1)
One of the best games of the weekend. Easily. Really pumped for this one, as the Rams are closer and closer to be considered "for real".
Ravens @ Raiders (-2.5)
Packers (+2) @ Cowboys
Chiefs (-1.5) @ Texans
For my money, the best game this weekend. Happily, it's also SNF and it's a National holiday (Canada) on Monday. I'm incredibly excited for this game.
Vikings (-3.5) @ Bears
2017 season so far: 31-32
Wednesday, October 4, 2017
NFL Lines - Week 4 Results
Bears (+7.5) 14 @ Packers 35 - X
Even after the Packers went up 14-0 after what seemed like 34 seconds, I still felt good about this line. In fact, it took me much longer than most people to rule out a cover by Chicago. In the end, I was very much mistaken.
Saints 20 @ Dolphins (+3) 0 - X
Titans (-2.5) 14 @ Texans 57 - X
Almost! Only 45.5 points off. And now the Texans are absolutely legit and should not be underestimated in the AFC.
Jaguars (-3.5) 20 @ Jets 23 - X
Panthers (+9) 33 @ Patriots 30 - OK
Yay, I got one!
Lions (+2.5) 14 @ Vikings 7 - OK
Bills 23 @ Falcons (-8) 17 - X
A very surprising result at first glance. Not as surprising when you consider the best 2 WRs from the Falcons got hurt in the first half.
Steelers 26 @ Ravens (+3) 9 - X
I still believe the Ravens defense is very good, but they are as inept as they come on offense. That was rough to watch.
Bengals (-3) 31 @ Browns 7 - OK
Are the Bengals back?
Rams (+6.5) 35 @ Cowboys 30 - OK
I feel relatively smart getting that one right, even if the rest of the week is relatively poopy for me. Again, the Cowboys aren't convincing and have been the victims of many questionable calls from a coaching standpoint.
Eagles (+1) 26 @ Chargers 24 - OK
I could go on for hours about how this game made me feel. A lot of anger and stress, and ultimately some joy.
Giants 23 @ Buccaneers (-3) 25 - X
Lost on the prediction, won because the Giants lost and are now 0-4. I don't hate the Giants necessarily, it's just that a bad result for them is good news for the Eagles.
49ers 15 @ Cardinals (-7) 18 - X
Raiders 10 @ Broncos (-3) 16 - OK
Colts (+13) 18 @ Seahawks 46 - X
Now this looked more like the Seattle team we were all expecting at the beginning of the year. Even within that game, it took a while to get going, but once they did, they just destroyed a team. Granted, it's a team they should destroy, but it's a good sign nonetheless.
Redskins 20 @ Chiefs (-7) 29 - OK
A very entertaining game through and through. The Chiefs covered in the weirdest way possible with 4 seconds left, making a lot of people angry and happy. This buzzer-beating TD put the margin over 7, giving many gamblers a win. It also put the total number of points scored over 48, which was the line for this game. A friend of mine had bet on both KC -7 and Over 48 points total. With 4 seconds left, both looked nearly impossible.
This week: 7-9
2017 season so far: 31-32
Even after the Packers went up 14-0 after what seemed like 34 seconds, I still felt good about this line. In fact, it took me much longer than most people to rule out a cover by Chicago. In the end, I was very much mistaken.
Saints 20 @ Dolphins (+3) 0 - X
Titans (-2.5) 14 @ Texans 57 - X
Almost! Only 45.5 points off. And now the Texans are absolutely legit and should not be underestimated in the AFC.
Jaguars (-3.5) 20 @ Jets 23 - X
Panthers (+9) 33 @ Patriots 30 - OK
Yay, I got one!
Lions (+2.5) 14 @ Vikings 7 - OK
Bills 23 @ Falcons (-8) 17 - X
A very surprising result at first glance. Not as surprising when you consider the best 2 WRs from the Falcons got hurt in the first half.
Steelers 26 @ Ravens (+3) 9 - X
I still believe the Ravens defense is very good, but they are as inept as they come on offense. That was rough to watch.
Bengals (-3) 31 @ Browns 7 - OK
Are the Bengals back?
Rams (+6.5) 35 @ Cowboys 30 - OK
I feel relatively smart getting that one right, even if the rest of the week is relatively poopy for me. Again, the Cowboys aren't convincing and have been the victims of many questionable calls from a coaching standpoint.
Eagles (+1) 26 @ Chargers 24 - OK
I could go on for hours about how this game made me feel. A lot of anger and stress, and ultimately some joy.
Giants 23 @ Buccaneers (-3) 25 - X
Lost on the prediction, won because the Giants lost and are now 0-4. I don't hate the Giants necessarily, it's just that a bad result for them is good news for the Eagles.
49ers 15 @ Cardinals (-7) 18 - X
Raiders 10 @ Broncos (-3) 16 - OK
Colts (+13) 18 @ Seahawks 46 - X
Now this looked more like the Seattle team we were all expecting at the beginning of the year. Even within that game, it took a while to get going, but once they did, they just destroyed a team. Granted, it's a team they should destroy, but it's a good sign nonetheless.
Redskins 20 @ Chiefs (-7) 29 - OK
A very entertaining game through and through. The Chiefs covered in the weirdest way possible with 4 seconds left, making a lot of people angry and happy. This buzzer-beating TD put the margin over 7, giving many gamblers a win. It also put the total number of points scored over 48, which was the line for this game. A friend of mine had bet on both KC -7 and Over 48 points total. With 4 seconds left, both looked nearly impossible.
This week: 7-9
2017 season so far: 31-32
Tuesday, October 3, 2017
NFL Lines - Week 4 predictions
Bears (+7.5) @ Packers
That 0.5 is just enough for me to take the Bears. At 7 I would be stuck, not knowing which way to lean. 7.5 is enough to push me over the edge as the Bears aren't terrible.
Saints @ Dolphins (+3)
I don't feel good about either team here.
Titans (-2.5) @ Texans
That's a hard one. The Texans are much better than their 1-2 record indicates, and the Titans are simply very good. It will certainly be one of the better games of week 4.
Jaguars (-3.5) @ Jets
Panthers (+9) @ Patriots
I don't know what to make of the Panthers just yet. Their offense is terrible but their defense has been able to keep them in games (except against the Saints). The Pats torched the Saints and the Saints torched the Panthers. Using kids' logic, the Patriots should make minced meat of the Panthers, but I don't think it will be this simple. I just don't trust the Pats just yet, but am prepared to be proven wrong, as they have done multiple times in the past years.
Lions (+2.5) @ Vikings
Bills @ Falcons (-8)
Steelers @ Ravens (+3)
Cue the "These two teams don't like each other" soundbite. While the Steelers have definitely been the most accomplished team over the past couple of seasons, the Ravens have had the upper hand in this intense rivalry (including 4 straight wins in Baltimore) and the matches have usually been really close.
Bengals (-3) @ Browns
Rams (+6.5) @ Cowboys
Another pretty good matchup here. The Rams have been incredible on offense so far, scoring almost 36 points per game. They will be a handful for the still not entirely convincing Cowboys on a short week. 6.5 seems too high a spread.
Eagles (+1) @ Chargers
I feel like we should be favorite, especially as we're hovering around 8-12 in most power rankings whereas the Chargers are in the very high 20s and even 30s in some places. I'm not saying the Chargers are an especially bad team.
Giants @ Buccaneers (-3)
49ers @ Cardinals (-7)
Raiders @ Broncos (-3)
Colts (+13) @ Seahawks
Man I don't know how the Seahawks keep getting those very high lines when they haven't shown anything impressive this year. Their offense seemed to come out of a funk last week but they still lost. If you would have told me 4 weeks ago that the 'Hawks would be favorites by almost two touchdowns against Colts, I wouldn't have been surprised. Now, 13 points seems like a lot. Maybe too much. You kinda expect Seattle to finally start playing like the SuperBowl contenders most believe they are, but I'm not convinced yet.
Redskins @ Chiefs (-7)
The best game of the week? It might very well be.
2017 season so far: 24-23
That 0.5 is just enough for me to take the Bears. At 7 I would be stuck, not knowing which way to lean. 7.5 is enough to push me over the edge as the Bears aren't terrible.
Saints @ Dolphins (+3)
I don't feel good about either team here.
Titans (-2.5) @ Texans
That's a hard one. The Texans are much better than their 1-2 record indicates, and the Titans are simply very good. It will certainly be one of the better games of week 4.
Jaguars (-3.5) @ Jets
Panthers (+9) @ Patriots
I don't know what to make of the Panthers just yet. Their offense is terrible but their defense has been able to keep them in games (except against the Saints). The Pats torched the Saints and the Saints torched the Panthers. Using kids' logic, the Patriots should make minced meat of the Panthers, but I don't think it will be this simple. I just don't trust the Pats just yet, but am prepared to be proven wrong, as they have done multiple times in the past years.
Lions (+2.5) @ Vikings
Bills @ Falcons (-8)
Steelers @ Ravens (+3)
Cue the "These two teams don't like each other" soundbite. While the Steelers have definitely been the most accomplished team over the past couple of seasons, the Ravens have had the upper hand in this intense rivalry (including 4 straight wins in Baltimore) and the matches have usually been really close.
Bengals (-3) @ Browns
Rams (+6.5) @ Cowboys
Another pretty good matchup here. The Rams have been incredible on offense so far, scoring almost 36 points per game. They will be a handful for the still not entirely convincing Cowboys on a short week. 6.5 seems too high a spread.
Eagles (+1) @ Chargers
I feel like we should be favorite, especially as we're hovering around 8-12 in most power rankings whereas the Chargers are in the very high 20s and even 30s in some places. I'm not saying the Chargers are an especially bad team.
Giants @ Buccaneers (-3)
49ers @ Cardinals (-7)
Raiders @ Broncos (-3)
Colts (+13) @ Seahawks
Man I don't know how the Seahawks keep getting those very high lines when they haven't shown anything impressive this year. Their offense seemed to come out of a funk last week but they still lost. If you would have told me 4 weeks ago that the 'Hawks would be favorites by almost two touchdowns against Colts, I wouldn't have been surprised. Now, 13 points seems like a lot. Maybe too much. You kinda expect Seattle to finally start playing like the SuperBowl contenders most believe they are, but I'm not convinced yet.
Redskins @ Chiefs (-7)
The best game of the week? It might very well be.
2017 season so far: 24-23
Tuesday, September 26, 2017
NFL Lines - Week 3 results
Rams (-2.5) 41 @ 49ers 39 - X
Holy backdoor cover, Batman! I can't believe this game ended the way it did. Everyone and their mother thought it was going to be awful, yet it was, by some margin, the highest scoring game of the week. 80 points.
Ravens (-4) 7 @ Jaguars 44 - X
Almost!
Browns 28 @ Colts (+1) 31 - OK
Yay, I got one right!
Broncos (-3) 16 @ Bills 26 - X
Texans 33 @ Patriots (-13) 36 - X
Hard to believe the Pats got out of that game alive. It really felt like the game belonged to the Texans, who might really be good this year, despite the rocky start to the season.
Dolphins 6 @ Jets (+5.5) 20 - OK
Saints 34 @ Panthers (-5.5) 13 - X
Steelers 17 @ Bears (+8.5) 23 - OK
The Steelers are really struggling aren't they? Especially since they probably should have lost that game in regulation. This game did provide perhaps the most entertaining highlight bit of the whole day, at the very end of the first half. Chicago blocked a FG, then ran it back the whole field before the Bear decided to stop running short of the end zone and was stripped of the ball by an oncoming Steeler, who then batted the ball out of bounds in the end zone. After much debate about what was going to happen, the Bears got the ball back at the half-yard line with a single play to go as the Steelers were charged with a penalty for batting the ball out. Thinking the half over, the Steelers ran into their locker room, before coming back onto the field a few minutes later. Obviously, the Bears tried to go for 7 but got called for a false start, after which they did hit a FG to make the score 17-7. It was quite a bizarre sequence of events.
Giants 24 @ Eagles 27 (-6) - X
God damn we almost blew that game. I would have been really pissed. As a matter of fact, I was really pissed when the Giants took the lead in the 4th. I knew in my heart that OBJ would make the Eagles' life miserable and he did for a while. Then he did a boneheaded "celebration". Just f***ing dance or something. Why do you have to do something that incredibly dumb? He knew he was going to get penalized. I mean, not a single soul on the Giants organization applauded that celebration. He's insanely talented and a joy to watch on the field, but so often he acts like a moron and it's disappointing. I don't mind trash-talking the crowd at all, that's part of the game and he probably feeds off that. I don't mind celebrating by angering the crowd.
Anyway, it's all moot since we won. Thanks to that massive FG by Jake Elliott. Man that kid must feel ecstatic, a true hero to Philadelphians and Eagles fans everywhere. What a crazy game.
Falcons (-3) 30 @ Lions 26 - OK
Talk about crazy games. I understand that's how the rules work, but that 10 second runoff at the end was perhaps the most anti-climactic way to end a game. It just does not feel right to end that way, no matter what the rules say.
Buccaneers 17 @ Vikings 34 - X
I wrote quickly that I'd take the Bucs in that matchup even as there was no line out yet. This looked even smarter as Bradford was ruled out by the end of the week. Welp.
Seahawks 27 @ Titans (-3) 33 - OK
The Seahawks offense woke up a little bit yesterday, as Russell Wilson had a monster game (I benched him, funnily enough, in fantasy. But I won my week by a wide, very wide margin, anyway).
Bengals 24 @ Packers (-9) 27 - X
This is kinda why I don't trust the Packers in the playoffs usually. They really need a shit-ton of bailing out every year (almost every week, even) by Aaron Rodgers. The man is one of the greatest QBs ever, but he can't save them every single time. Yesterday he did, but at some point playing poorly for long stretches catches up to them.
Chiefs (-3) 24 @ Chargers 10 - OK
Raiders (-3) 10 @ Redskins 27 - X
That was a very impressive performance by the Redskins. They definitely looked like the best team in the NFC East yesterday. And they might be, if they can play like that every week. Makes our victory over them in week 1 that much more impressive.
Cowboys (-3) 28 @ Cardinals 17 - OK
I really wanted the Cowboys to lose, no matter what my prediction said. (I always want the Cowboys to lose, let's be clear). Now we have three 2-1 teams in the division. I figured it was going to be a very tightly contested division, and it's really shaping up to be one.
This week: 7-9
Season so far: 24-23
Holy backdoor cover, Batman! I can't believe this game ended the way it did. Everyone and their mother thought it was going to be awful, yet it was, by some margin, the highest scoring game of the week. 80 points.
Ravens (-4) 7 @ Jaguars 44 - X
Almost!
Browns 28 @ Colts (+1) 31 - OK
Yay, I got one right!
Broncos (-3) 16 @ Bills 26 - X
Texans 33 @ Patriots (-13) 36 - X
Hard to believe the Pats got out of that game alive. It really felt like the game belonged to the Texans, who might really be good this year, despite the rocky start to the season.
Dolphins 6 @ Jets (+5.5) 20 - OK
Saints 34 @ Panthers (-5.5) 13 - X
Steelers 17 @ Bears (+8.5) 23 - OK
The Steelers are really struggling aren't they? Especially since they probably should have lost that game in regulation. This game did provide perhaps the most entertaining highlight bit of the whole day, at the very end of the first half. Chicago blocked a FG, then ran it back the whole field before the Bear decided to stop running short of the end zone and was stripped of the ball by an oncoming Steeler, who then batted the ball out of bounds in the end zone. After much debate about what was going to happen, the Bears got the ball back at the half-yard line with a single play to go as the Steelers were charged with a penalty for batting the ball out. Thinking the half over, the Steelers ran into their locker room, before coming back onto the field a few minutes later. Obviously, the Bears tried to go for 7 but got called for a false start, after which they did hit a FG to make the score 17-7. It was quite a bizarre sequence of events.
Giants 24 @ Eagles 27 (-6) - X
God damn we almost blew that game. I would have been really pissed. As a matter of fact, I was really pissed when the Giants took the lead in the 4th. I knew in my heart that OBJ would make the Eagles' life miserable and he did for a while. Then he did a boneheaded "celebration". Just f***ing dance or something. Why do you have to do something that incredibly dumb? He knew he was going to get penalized. I mean, not a single soul on the Giants organization applauded that celebration. He's insanely talented and a joy to watch on the field, but so often he acts like a moron and it's disappointing. I don't mind trash-talking the crowd at all, that's part of the game and he probably feeds off that. I don't mind celebrating by angering the crowd.
Anyway, it's all moot since we won. Thanks to that massive FG by Jake Elliott. Man that kid must feel ecstatic, a true hero to Philadelphians and Eagles fans everywhere. What a crazy game.
Falcons (-3) 30 @ Lions 26 - OK
Talk about crazy games. I understand that's how the rules work, but that 10 second runoff at the end was perhaps the most anti-climactic way to end a game. It just does not feel right to end that way, no matter what the rules say.
Buccaneers 17 @ Vikings 34 - X
I wrote quickly that I'd take the Bucs in that matchup even as there was no line out yet. This looked even smarter as Bradford was ruled out by the end of the week. Welp.
Seahawks 27 @ Titans (-3) 33 - OK
The Seahawks offense woke up a little bit yesterday, as Russell Wilson had a monster game (I benched him, funnily enough, in fantasy. But I won my week by a wide, very wide margin, anyway).
Bengals 24 @ Packers (-9) 27 - X
This is kinda why I don't trust the Packers in the playoffs usually. They really need a shit-ton of bailing out every year (almost every week, even) by Aaron Rodgers. The man is one of the greatest QBs ever, but he can't save them every single time. Yesterday he did, but at some point playing poorly for long stretches catches up to them.
Chiefs (-3) 24 @ Chargers 10 - OK
Raiders (-3) 10 @ Redskins 27 - X
That was a very impressive performance by the Redskins. They definitely looked like the best team in the NFC East yesterday. And they might be, if they can play like that every week. Makes our victory over them in week 1 that much more impressive.
Cowboys (-3) 28 @ Cardinals 17 - OK
I really wanted the Cowboys to lose, no matter what my prediction said. (I always want the Cowboys to lose, let's be clear). Now we have three 2-1 teams in the division. I figured it was going to be a very tightly contested division, and it's really shaping up to be one.
This week: 7-9
Season so far: 24-23
Thursday, September 21, 2017
NFL Lines - Week 3 predictions
So many road favorites this week. It's kinda staggering when you hear/read the stats at first (10 out of 16!), but when you go down the list of games, it does make sense. The better teams are playing on the road this week. And in many cases, the road team is significantly better than the home team. I even thought some road favorites had relatively low lines. If I was a betting man, I'd jump on some of them (Broncos and Raiders, first and foremost).
Rams (-2.5) @ 49ers
That's a Thursday night game I'm relatively interested in, since these are two teams I don't see play that often. To be honest, it's mostly the Rams here. Last year I watched only one of their games and they played really great, so my opinion of them is biased.
Ravens (-4) @ Jaguars
Morning football! Usually the weekend mornings are me watching European soccer. If I find the time on my normally busy weekends, I'll try to catch the Ravens, that's for sure.
Browns @ Colts (+1)
While I believe the Browns aren't as bad this year, I'm still not ready to bet them on the road, even against an even poopier team in the Colts.
Broncos (-3) @ Bills
The Bills haven't been especially bad, but they can't score it seems. While the Broncos offense isn't world-class, it's certainly able to put a few points on the board.
Texans @ Patriots (-13)
It seems to me the Pats always destroy the Texans. Looking at the past few matchups, the Pats have indeed beaten Houston by large margins lately. 28, 13, 3, 21, 27, 18. Only one legitimately close game in this lot.
Dolphins @ Jets (+5.5)
Saints @ Panthers (-5.5)
I don't know what to make of either teams, but at least Carolina's defense has been excellent so far (6 points allowed in two games).
Steelers @ Bears (+8.5)
Giants @ Eagles (-6)
The Eagles have been actually good in the opening couple of weeks. The Giants have been quite the opposite. Add the fact that it's our home opener and I think this game is ours. The only thing I can see playing a factor in a hypothetical loss is if OBJ explodes against our relatively weak secondary.
Falcons (-3) @ Lions
The Lions might be much better than most people anticipated. Or not. They're a team that could go 4-12 this season or 12-4 and I wouldn't bat an eye. At the same time, I think the Falcons are going to be the cream of the crop in the NFC this season once again, so I'm not betting against them.
Buccaneers @ Vikings
No line yet! If I treat this as a pick'em, which it very well might be, I'd pick the Buccaneers.
Seahawks @ Titans (-3)
The Seahawks have to show me they have a functional offense for me to bet for them on the road ever again. It's completely ridiculous that a team with such a stellar defense is so poopy on offense. And it's not like they don't have skilled players on offense.
Bengals @ Packers (-9)
The Bengals have been horrendous so far. It's in Lambeau. I'm guessing a beatdown here.
Chiefs (-3) @ Chargers
Line seems quite low as the Chiefs have been stellar so far.
Raiders (-3) @ Redskins
Another seemingly low line here. The Redskins aren't bad by any means but the Raiders look vastly superior.
Cowboys (-3) @ Cardinals
Tough one here. It's the Cards home opener after two lackluster games. The Cowboys have been exposed badly last week. I expect both teams to come out guns blazing. In such a game, I expect the Cowboys to be better. But I want them to lose 56-0 still.
Season so far: 17-14
Rams (-2.5) @ 49ers
That's a Thursday night game I'm relatively interested in, since these are two teams I don't see play that often. To be honest, it's mostly the Rams here. Last year I watched only one of their games and they played really great, so my opinion of them is biased.
Ravens (-4) @ Jaguars
Morning football! Usually the weekend mornings are me watching European soccer. If I find the time on my normally busy weekends, I'll try to catch the Ravens, that's for sure.
Browns @ Colts (+1)
While I believe the Browns aren't as bad this year, I'm still not ready to bet them on the road, even against an even poopier team in the Colts.
Broncos (-3) @ Bills
The Bills haven't been especially bad, but they can't score it seems. While the Broncos offense isn't world-class, it's certainly able to put a few points on the board.
Texans @ Patriots (-13)
It seems to me the Pats always destroy the Texans. Looking at the past few matchups, the Pats have indeed beaten Houston by large margins lately. 28, 13, 3, 21, 27, 18. Only one legitimately close game in this lot.
Dolphins @ Jets (+5.5)
Saints @ Panthers (-5.5)
I don't know what to make of either teams, but at least Carolina's defense has been excellent so far (6 points allowed in two games).
Steelers @ Bears (+8.5)
Giants @ Eagles (-6)
The Eagles have been actually good in the opening couple of weeks. The Giants have been quite the opposite. Add the fact that it's our home opener and I think this game is ours. The only thing I can see playing a factor in a hypothetical loss is if OBJ explodes against our relatively weak secondary.
Falcons (-3) @ Lions
The Lions might be much better than most people anticipated. Or not. They're a team that could go 4-12 this season or 12-4 and I wouldn't bat an eye. At the same time, I think the Falcons are going to be the cream of the crop in the NFC this season once again, so I'm not betting against them.
Buccaneers @ Vikings
No line yet! If I treat this as a pick'em, which it very well might be, I'd pick the Buccaneers.
Seahawks @ Titans (-3)
The Seahawks have to show me they have a functional offense for me to bet for them on the road ever again. It's completely ridiculous that a team with such a stellar defense is so poopy on offense. And it's not like they don't have skilled players on offense.
Bengals @ Packers (-9)
The Bengals have been horrendous so far. It's in Lambeau. I'm guessing a beatdown here.
Chiefs (-3) @ Chargers
Line seems quite low as the Chiefs have been stellar so far.
Raiders (-3) @ Redskins
Another seemingly low line here. The Redskins aren't bad by any means but the Raiders look vastly superior.
Cowboys (-3) @ Cardinals
Tough one here. It's the Cards home opener after two lackluster games. The Cowboys have been exposed badly last week. I expect both teams to come out guns blazing. In such a game, I expect the Cowboys to be better. But I want them to lose 56-0 still.
Season so far: 17-14
Tuesday, September 19, 2017
NFL Lines - Week 2 results
This week was much better than the opening one (10-6 against 7-8). I was mostly happy with how my picks turned out, even if I grossly misjudged some teams.
Texans (+6) 13 @ Bengals 9 - OK
Came in time for the second half after a parents-teacher meeting. What a terrible game, but at least we had a superb highlight out of it when Watson bamboozled the whole Bengals defense with that long TD run. Other than that, the Bengals are really bad so far, with a staggering 4.5 points per game so far.
Cardinals 16 @ Colts (+7.5) 13 - OK
OVERTIME! That I missed when I closed DAZN for a few seconds. Did not look like a great game.
Patriots (-7) 36 @ Saints 20 - OK
Did not see that game, but was happy (for my fantasy team) Gronk exploded. Was not surprised the Pats blew out the Saints. Not at all.
Eagles (+6) @ Chiefs 27 - X
It was a very close game up until that unfortunate interception after Wentz' pass bounced off a linebacker's helmet right to the hands of a linesman. Then it kinda unraveled for the Eagles. A few bright spots for the birds as Jeffery came alive and our pass rush was mostly good. A late touchdown put the score back to a respectable (and ultimately more representative of the play disparity between both teams) 7 point loss. A glimmer of hope with that successful onside kick and the ensuing Hail Mary. The prayer ended up being slightly too long in a sea of arms.
Bears 7 @ Bucs (-7.0) 29 - OK
Vikings (+5) 9 @ Steelers 26 - X
Browns 10 @ Ravens (-8) 24 - OK
I'm really happy the Ravens won (favourite AFC team, for anyone wondering), but really confused and frustrated at myself for putting Perriman into my lineup for a grand total of zero fantasy point. I should have left Gore in, I would have had about 10 points instead of zero. I'm dropping Perriman tomorrow. Two games, eight targets, one catch, five yards. You see my point.
Bills (+8.5) 3 @ Panthers 9 - OK
That has to be the less convincing 2-0 start in recent memories by the Panthers.
Titans (-2) 37 @ Jaguars 16 - OK
Jets 20 @ Raiders (-13) 42 - OK
Dolphins 19 @ Chargers (-4) 17 - X
49ers 9 @ Seahawks (-14) 12 -X
Well that looked like a terrible game. There's no way I'm starting Russell Wilson next week, not with my second QB, future multiple time MVP Carson Wentz, throwing for 300+ yards like it was nothing every week. Seriously though, that offensive line is horrendous.
Cowboys 17 @ Broncos (+2.5) 42 - OK
The Broncos' defense is freakishly good. Sure, I don't think it was a great game plan by the Cowboys (yes, I'm still on the "Jason Garrett is not a very good coach" side of that debate) to have their 2nd year QB throw 50 times against arguably the best secondary in the NFL. To be fair, their run defense did their job against a world-class offensive line so there wasn't much to gain there anyway. I don't know what the Broncos' ceiling is right now, but I feel like it could be much higher than we all thought at the beginning of the season.
Redskins 27 @ Rams (-3) 20 - X
Packers 23 @ Falcons (-2.5) 34 - OK
The Falcons look every bit as deadly as they did last year, despite the best efforts from many "experts" to declare last year's performance a fluke (a criticism mostly aimed at Matt Ryan). Considering Seattle's absolutely horrendous offensive line, it's safe to say th
Lions 24 @ Giants (-3) 10 - X
This week: 10-6
Season so far: 17-14
Texans (+6) 13 @ Bengals 9 - OK
Came in time for the second half after a parents-teacher meeting. What a terrible game, but at least we had a superb highlight out of it when Watson bamboozled the whole Bengals defense with that long TD run. Other than that, the Bengals are really bad so far, with a staggering 4.5 points per game so far.
Cardinals 16 @ Colts (+7.5) 13 - OK
OVERTIME! That I missed when I closed DAZN for a few seconds. Did not look like a great game.
Patriots (-7) 36 @ Saints 20 - OK
Did not see that game, but was happy (for my fantasy team) Gronk exploded. Was not surprised the Pats blew out the Saints. Not at all.
Eagles (+6) @ Chiefs 27 - X
It was a very close game up until that unfortunate interception after Wentz' pass bounced off a linebacker's helmet right to the hands of a linesman. Then it kinda unraveled for the Eagles. A few bright spots for the birds as Jeffery came alive and our pass rush was mostly good. A late touchdown put the score back to a respectable (and ultimately more representative of the play disparity between both teams) 7 point loss. A glimmer of hope with that successful onside kick and the ensuing Hail Mary. The prayer ended up being slightly too long in a sea of arms.
Bears 7 @ Bucs (-7.0) 29 - OK
Vikings (+5) 9 @ Steelers 26 - X
Browns 10 @ Ravens (-8) 24 - OK
I'm really happy the Ravens won (favourite AFC team, for anyone wondering), but really confused and frustrated at myself for putting Perriman into my lineup for a grand total of zero fantasy point. I should have left Gore in, I would have had about 10 points instead of zero. I'm dropping Perriman tomorrow. Two games, eight targets, one catch, five yards. You see my point.
Bills (+8.5) 3 @ Panthers 9 - OK
That has to be the less convincing 2-0 start in recent memories by the Panthers.
Titans (-2) 37 @ Jaguars 16 - OK
Jets 20 @ Raiders (-13) 42 - OK
Dolphins 19 @ Chargers (-4) 17 - X
49ers 9 @ Seahawks (-14) 12 -X
Well that looked like a terrible game. There's no way I'm starting Russell Wilson next week, not with my second QB, future multiple time MVP Carson Wentz, throwing for 300+ yards like it was nothing every week. Seriously though, that offensive line is horrendous.
Cowboys 17 @ Broncos (+2.5) 42 - OK
The Broncos' defense is freakishly good. Sure, I don't think it was a great game plan by the Cowboys (yes, I'm still on the "Jason Garrett is not a very good coach" side of that debate) to have their 2nd year QB throw 50 times against arguably the best secondary in the NFL. To be fair, their run defense did their job against a world-class offensive line so there wasn't much to gain there anyway. I don't know what the Broncos' ceiling is right now, but I feel like it could be much higher than we all thought at the beginning of the season.
Redskins 27 @ Rams (-3) 20 - X
Packers 23 @ Falcons (-2.5) 34 - OK
The Falcons look every bit as deadly as they did last year, despite the best efforts from many "experts" to declare last year's performance a fluke (a criticism mostly aimed at Matt Ryan). Considering Seattle's absolutely horrendous offensive line, it's safe to say th
Lions 24 @ Giants (-3) 10 - X
This week: 10-6
Season so far: 17-14
Friday, September 15, 2017
NFL Lines - Week 2 predictions
Last week I was 7-8 against the spread, which isn't absolutely terrible, but certainly not what anyone would call good. This week, I changed the source for the lines after a discussion with a friend who does his gambling on another website. His lines were often up to 2 points larger or smaller than the ones I had. This actually made things harder for certain lines. For example, the Raiders line on that other website was -15, here it's -13. At -15 I probably would have taken the points for the Jets, as 2+ touchdowns is a lot. 13 points is just low enough for me to pick the Raiders. In any case, here are my picks.
Texans (+6) @ Bengals
Both teams have crapped the bed in the first game, losing their respective game by 23 and 20 points. I expect both to bounce back, but I trust the Texans a bit more.
Cardinals @ Colts (+7.5)
I switched this pick a few times, but then realized that the Cardinals played a poor game last week and their best offensive player is injured. So it will likely be a low-scoring affair, 13-7 or something.
Patriots (-7) @ Saints
I can't see the Pats starting 0-2 just yet. If it happens I wouldn't be that surprised, but I'm not expecting such a thing to occur.
Eagles (+6) @ Chiefs
This will be a tough one, but I think our D line keeps us close enough, and perhaps put us over the top. My money would be on a 3 or 4-point win by the Chiefs.
Bears @ Bucs (-7.0)
The Bucs haven't played a regular season game yet so they might be rusty, but they have much, much more talent than the Bears and should win their first game handily.
Vikings (+5) @ Steelers
I always feel like the Vikings are overlooked, and I don't think they should be. The line is actually closer than I would have expected, given the mad respect people usually have for Pittsburgh, but I still feel the Vikings can cover and perhaps win.
Browns @ Ravens (-8)
While the Browns' cover last week was impressive, I doubt they can do the same in one of the toughest home fields in the NFL.
Bills (+8.5) @ Panthers
I'm not yet sold on the Panthers. I like the team, I like Cam and they have as a linebacker perhaps my favourite non-Eagles player to watch, Luke Kuechly. I also believe the Bills are actually a decent team,
Titans (-2) @ Jaguars
This is another one I changed my mind on a few times. The Jaguars had an impressive performance last week, registering 10 (!!) sacks against a struggling Houston team. The Titans are a superior team and the line is basically a pick'em at this point.
Jets @ Raiders (-13)
13 points is a lot. Then again, the Jets aren't very good and the Raiders are definitely a top team in the AFC and they're at home. On that absolutely scorching take, I'm picking the Raiders.
Dolphins @ Chargers (-4)
These are two teams I know little about. I'm basing that pick on absolutely nothing except that the Chargers play at home in that "tiny" stadium of theirs.
49ers @ Seahawks (-14)
Man that line is high. Then again, the 49ers have lost 7 straight games to the Seahawks and games played in the state of Washington tend to be blowouts. That's what I'm expecting here.
Cowboys @ Broncos (+2.5)
In a matchup between an amazing offense and an amazing defense, I always pick the amazing defense. Always.
Redskins @ Rams (-3)
The Redskins showed flashes agains the Eagles last week, but except for a few good plays by Josh Norman, the defense looked mediocre. I haven't seen the Rams play last week and you can't put that much stock into beating the poor Colts, but they're definitely a better team in 2017 than they were in 2016.
Packers @ Falcons (-2.5)
Man, what a game this might turn out to be. Signs point to a offensive fest, but so often those games end up being defensive struggles. I'm hyped for this one, that's for certain.
Lions @ Giants (-3)
With the talent surrounding them in the NFC East, this is almost already a must-win for the Giants. If OBJ is ready to go, they won't lose two weeks in a row.
Texans (+6) @ Bengals
Both teams have crapped the bed in the first game, losing their respective game by 23 and 20 points. I expect both to bounce back, but I trust the Texans a bit more.
Cardinals @ Colts (+7.5)
I switched this pick a few times, but then realized that the Cardinals played a poor game last week and their best offensive player is injured. So it will likely be a low-scoring affair, 13-7 or something.
Patriots (-7) @ Saints
I can't see the Pats starting 0-2 just yet. If it happens I wouldn't be that surprised, but I'm not expecting such a thing to occur.
Eagles (+6) @ Chiefs
This will be a tough one, but I think our D line keeps us close enough, and perhaps put us over the top. My money would be on a 3 or 4-point win by the Chiefs.
Bears @ Bucs (-7.0)
The Bucs haven't played a regular season game yet so they might be rusty, but they have much, much more talent than the Bears and should win their first game handily.
Vikings (+5) @ Steelers
I always feel like the Vikings are overlooked, and I don't think they should be. The line is actually closer than I would have expected, given the mad respect people usually have for Pittsburgh, but I still feel the Vikings can cover and perhaps win.
Browns @ Ravens (-8)
While the Browns' cover last week was impressive, I doubt they can do the same in one of the toughest home fields in the NFL.
Bills (+8.5) @ Panthers
I'm not yet sold on the Panthers. I like the team, I like Cam and they have as a linebacker perhaps my favourite non-Eagles player to watch, Luke Kuechly. I also believe the Bills are actually a decent team,
Titans (-2) @ Jaguars
This is another one I changed my mind on a few times. The Jaguars had an impressive performance last week, registering 10 (!!) sacks against a struggling Houston team. The Titans are a superior team and the line is basically a pick'em at this point.
Jets @ Raiders (-13)
13 points is a lot. Then again, the Jets aren't very good and the Raiders are definitely a top team in the AFC and they're at home. On that absolutely scorching take, I'm picking the Raiders.
Dolphins @ Chargers (-4)
These are two teams I know little about. I'm basing that pick on absolutely nothing except that the Chargers play at home in that "tiny" stadium of theirs.
49ers @ Seahawks (-14)
Man that line is high. Then again, the 49ers have lost 7 straight games to the Seahawks and games played in the state of Washington tend to be blowouts. That's what I'm expecting here.
Cowboys @ Broncos (+2.5)
In a matchup between an amazing offense and an amazing defense, I always pick the amazing defense. Always.
Redskins @ Rams (-3)
The Redskins showed flashes agains the Eagles last week, but except for a few good plays by Josh Norman, the defense looked mediocre. I haven't seen the Rams play last week and you can't put that much stock into beating the poor Colts, but they're definitely a better team in 2017 than they were in 2016.
Packers @ Falcons (-2.5)
Man, what a game this might turn out to be. Signs point to a offensive fest, but so often those games end up being defensive struggles. I'm hyped for this one, that's for certain.
Lions @ Giants (-3)
With the talent surrounding them in the NFC East, this is almost already a must-win for the Giants. If OBJ is ready to go, they won't lose two weeks in a row.
Tuesday, September 12, 2017
NFL Lines - Week 1 results
Overall, it was not a great week for me trying to pick the spread (7-8). Even picking an outright winner didn't work as well as I'd hoped (Texans, Pats, Cards, Bengals, Seahawks and Giants all lost games I'd thought they'd win.
Chiefs (+9.0) 42 @ Patriots 27 - OK
Jets 12 @ Bills (-7.5) 21 - OK
Cardinals (-1.5) 23 @ Lions 35 - X
Eagles (-1.5) 30 @ Redskins 17 - OK
F*** yeah! And the Eagles defense scored 25 points for me in fantasy, more than any other player.
Jaguars 29 @ Texans (-6) 7 - X
Hey now, I was only 28 points off on this one. Not that bad right? Right?
Raiders (+2) 26 @ Titans 16 - OK
Steelers (-9) 21 @ Browns 18 - X
Much tighter than I think anybody expected.
Falcons (-7) 23 @ Bears 17 - X
Ravens 20 @ Bengals (-3) 0 (PUSH) - X
You don't see a shutout that often in this league. Impressive stuff by the Ravens.
Colts 9 @ Rams (-3.5) 46 - OK
The Colts are not very good at football for an NFL team. That's my hot take of the week.
Panthers (-5.5) 23@ 49ers 3 - OK
Neither are the 49ers.
Seahawks (+3.0) 9 @ Green Bay 17 - X
That Seahawks defense is absolutely ridiculous. I was amazed that the Packers managed to score that many points.
Giants (+4) 3 @ Cowboys 19 - X
Ezekiel Elliot is a freaking monster. At times, he shredded what was the second best defense in the League in 2016. It's insane.
Oh, and the Giants can't do shit on offense without Beckham it seems. I'm guessing next match between both team will be very, very different if he's 100%.
Saints 19 @ Vikings (-3.5) 29 - OK
Chargers 21 @ Broncos (-3.5) 24 - X
This week: 7-8
Season so far: 7-8
Chiefs (+9.0) 42 @ Patriots 27 - OK
Jets 12 @ Bills (-7.5) 21 - OK
Cardinals (-1.5) 23 @ Lions 35 - X
Eagles (-1.5) 30 @ Redskins 17 - OK
F*** yeah! And the Eagles defense scored 25 points for me in fantasy, more than any other player.
Jaguars 29 @ Texans (-6) 7 - X
Hey now, I was only 28 points off on this one. Not that bad right? Right?
Raiders (+2) 26 @ Titans 16 - OK
Steelers (-9) 21 @ Browns 18 - X
Much tighter than I think anybody expected.
Falcons (-7) 23 @ Bears 17 - X
Ravens 20 @ Bengals (-3) 0 (PUSH) - X
You don't see a shutout that often in this league. Impressive stuff by the Ravens.
Colts 9 @ Rams (-3.5) 46 - OK
The Colts are not very good at football for an NFL team. That's my hot take of the week.
Panthers (-5.5) 23@ 49ers 3 - OK
Neither are the 49ers.
Seahawks (+3.0) 9 @ Green Bay 17 - X
That Seahawks defense is absolutely ridiculous. I was amazed that the Packers managed to score that many points.
Giants (+4) 3 @ Cowboys 19 - X
Ezekiel Elliot is a freaking monster. At times, he shredded what was the second best defense in the League in 2016. It's insane.
Oh, and the Giants can't do shit on offense without Beckham it seems. I'm guessing next match between both team will be very, very different if he's 100%.
Saints 19 @ Vikings (-3.5) 29 - OK
Chargers 21 @ Broncos (-3.5) 24 - X
This week: 7-8
Season so far: 7-8
Saturday, September 9, 2017
NFL Week 1 Picks
As the season progresses, I might have longer write-ups for individual games. For now, I'm just pointing out general impressions.
Chiefs (+9.0) @ Patriots
I'm certain the Chiefs will cover even if they lose, but I still predict a relatively close game.
Jets @ Bills (-7.5)
The Jets are just terrible, I don't feel okay picking them any time soon. Also, I have Shady McCoy on my fantasy so I want him to go for 25 rushes, 168 yards and 2 TDs. At least.
Cardinals (-1.5) @ Lions
As I think will be the case with the Panthers, the Cardinals are too good of a team to have another sub-500 season. I have no grasp on the Lions yet though. I see the talent, especially on offense, but I don't know whether it'll come together.
Eagles (-1.5) @ Redskins
Extremely surprising line, as I think the Redskins and my team, the Eagles, are very closely matched and homefield usually reigns supreme in such cases. I like my team still, so I'll take it in a very close game.
Jaguars @ Texans (-6)
Perhaps the toughest matchup for me to pick this week. Ultimately, the Jaguars almost always disappoint and JJ Watt is back. So there.
Raiders (+2) @ Titans
Another very interesting matchup. The Titans are supposed to be much better this year and the Raiders are picked by many experts to regress a little bit. This is probably why the line is in the Titans' favour. I'm not sold just yet, although I do expect a very close game.
Steelers (-9) @ Browns
The Steelers are arguably the most loaded team in the league on offense and are more than competent on defense. The Browns are the Browns.
Falcons (-7) @ Bears
I really like the Bears and I would love to see them be a good football team again, but the Falcons are much, much better. This might be a blowout.
Ravens @ Bengals (-3) (PUSH)
Seems like the perfect line for this matchup, one of the most interesting of the weekend for me (the Ravens are my "official" favourite AFC team).
Colts @ Rams (-3.5)
This is one game I have zero interest in. The Rams' defense should reign supreme over the Colts.
Panthers (-5.5) @ 49ers
I believe in a Panthers' bounce back season this year. If Cam and Luke are healthy, they should be right there with the Packers and Seahawks atop the NFC in January.
Seahawks (+3.0) @ Green Bay
This is the best game of the week, and I can't see any of these team winning by more than 3-4 points. I trust the Seahawks slightly more than I do the Packers though as, in my book, defense trumps offense most of the time.
Giants (+4) @ Cowboys
I know Ezekiel is playing this weekend, but the Giants play the Cowboys so well. I feel they are arguably the best team in the always very competitive NFC East. This is going to be a fun one!
Saints @ Vikings (-3.5)
Two teams I know very little about here, as both have been mediocre for a few years now and aren't usually featured at length in podcasts or on national TV (not that it matters this year for me). I do however trust defensive teams more than offensive ones.
Chargers @ Broncos (-3.5)
I don't have a good feel on either these teams I don't watch that regularly, but I know the Broncos have an insanely talented defense. Also this game is so late there's no chance I'm watching more than maybe a quarter.
Chiefs (+9.0) @ Patriots
I'm certain the Chiefs will cover even if they lose, but I still predict a relatively close game.
Jets @ Bills (-7.5)
The Jets are just terrible, I don't feel okay picking them any time soon. Also, I have Shady McCoy on my fantasy so I want him to go for 25 rushes, 168 yards and 2 TDs. At least.
Cardinals (-1.5) @ Lions
As I think will be the case with the Panthers, the Cardinals are too good of a team to have another sub-500 season. I have no grasp on the Lions yet though. I see the talent, especially on offense, but I don't know whether it'll come together.
Eagles (-1.5) @ Redskins
Extremely surprising line, as I think the Redskins and my team, the Eagles, are very closely matched and homefield usually reigns supreme in such cases. I like my team still, so I'll take it in a very close game.
Jaguars @ Texans (-6)
Perhaps the toughest matchup for me to pick this week. Ultimately, the Jaguars almost always disappoint and JJ Watt is back. So there.
Raiders (+2) @ Titans
Another very interesting matchup. The Titans are supposed to be much better this year and the Raiders are picked by many experts to regress a little bit. This is probably why the line is in the Titans' favour. I'm not sold just yet, although I do expect a very close game.
Steelers (-9) @ Browns
The Steelers are arguably the most loaded team in the league on offense and are more than competent on defense. The Browns are the Browns.
Falcons (-7) @ Bears
I really like the Bears and I would love to see them be a good football team again, but the Falcons are much, much better. This might be a blowout.
Ravens @ Bengals (-3) (PUSH)
Seems like the perfect line for this matchup, one of the most interesting of the weekend for me (the Ravens are my "official" favourite AFC team).
Colts @ Rams (-3.5)
This is one game I have zero interest in. The Rams' defense should reign supreme over the Colts.
Panthers (-5.5) @ 49ers
I believe in a Panthers' bounce back season this year. If Cam and Luke are healthy, they should be right there with the Packers and Seahawks atop the NFC in January.
Seahawks (+3.0) @ Green Bay
This is the best game of the week, and I can't see any of these team winning by more than 3-4 points. I trust the Seahawks slightly more than I do the Packers though as, in my book, defense trumps offense most of the time.
Giants (+4) @ Cowboys
I know Ezekiel is playing this weekend, but the Giants play the Cowboys so well. I feel they are arguably the best team in the always very competitive NFC East. This is going to be a fun one!
Saints @ Vikings (-3.5)
Two teams I know very little about here, as both have been mediocre for a few years now and aren't usually featured at length in podcasts or on national TV (not that it matters this year for me). I do however trust defensive teams more than offensive ones.
Chargers @ Broncos (-3.5)
I don't have a good feel on either these teams I don't watch that regularly, but I know the Broncos have an insanely talented defense. Also this game is so late there's no chance I'm watching more than maybe a quarter.
Thursday, September 7, 2017
NFL wins over/under predictions for the 2017 season
I don't feel nearly as confident doing this as I did last year for the NBA where I only got 60% right, so I'm not expecting incredible results. It'll be fun nonetheless.
AFC
Jets - 4.5
My pick: UNDER
Patriots - 12.5
My pick: OVER
Bills - 6.0
My pick: EVEN
Dolphins - 7.5
My pick: OVER
Texans - 8.5
My pick: UNDER
Colts - 9.0
My pick: UNDER
Titans - 8.5
My pick: OVER
Jaguars - 6.0
My pick: UNDER
Bengals - 8.5
My pick: OVER
Ravens - 9.0
My pick: EVEN
Steelers - 10.5
My pick: OVER
Browns - 4.5
My pick: UNDER
Chargers - 7.5
My pick: OVER
Broncos - 8.5
My pick: UNDER
Chiefs - 9.0
My pick: OVER
Raiders - 10
My pick: EVEN
NFC
Giants - 9.0
My pick: Over
Eagles - 8.0
My pick: My heart says WAAAAY OVER but it's more likely to be EVEN.
Cowboys - 9.5
My pick: UNDER
Redskins - 7.5
My pick: UNDER
Falcons - 9.5
My pick: OVER
Panthers - 8.5
My pick: OVER
Saints - 8.0
My pick: UNDER
Buccaneers - 8.5
My pick: OVER
Bears - 5.5
My pick: UNDER
Packers - 10
My pick: OVER
Vikings - 8.5
My pick: UNDER
Lions - 8.0
My pick: EVEN
Rams - 5.5
My pick: UNDER
49ers - 4.5
My pick: UNDER
Seahawks - 10.5
My pick: OVER
Cardinals - 8.0
My pick: OVER
Here we are! I'm hoping for 16 our of 32. I don't have any money on this, but going even would be cool.
Thursday, January 26, 2017
My All-Star 2017 reserves
Disclaimer: I am well aware that the reserves have already been announced by the League. This post should have been up a few days ago but isn't due to laziness and general disorganization on my part. However, what is written below is exactly what I wrote between last week and this Monday.
The Starters for next month's All-Star Game have been announced, and you can bet every single blogger/expert/journalist/fan around is going to have something to say about it. And, after that's done, all will try and choose and/or guess who the reserves will be for each Conference. Since we're here, I might as well do just that too.
The Starters for next month's All-Star Game have been announced, and you can bet every single blogger/expert/journalist/fan around is going to have something to say about it. And, after that's done, all will try and choose and/or guess who the reserves will be for each Conference. Since we're here, I might as well do just that too.
BC = Backcourt player
(Guards)
FC = Frontcourt player
(Forwards and Centers)
WC = Wild Card (last 2
reserve spots for each Conference)
Eastern Conference
Starters:
BC. Kyrie Irving –
Cleveland
BC. DeMar DeRozan –
Toronto
FC. Giannis Antetokounmpo –
Milwaukee
FC. LeBron James –
Cleveland
FC. Jimmy Bulter –
Chicago
Some things to note:
- First, let me just say I'm happy Dwyane Wade did not get the nod over any of the two guards up there. I have nothing against Wade per se, but the fans were about to vote him over 4 or 5 guards who deserve this spot way more than he does. I don't know if he'll make the reserve team (spoiler: he doesn't on mine), but for now it feels right.
- For my money, Kyle Lowry should be starting over Kyrie (and DeMar, in a way), but having Kyrie there isn't really a problem either.
- Of course, the 76ers fan in me is a bit miffed that Embiid isn't starting, because I don't believe coaches will reward a 14-26 team with a reserve spot. But who knows, maybe they'll be impressed with his admittedly amazing stats and contributions (seriously, check the numbers with him on and off the court, it's staggering.)
- In other words, nobody on there wouldn't have made my All-Star Team, starter or reserve, so we're good.
For reserves now, here are
my picks.
BC. Isaiah Thomas –
Boston
BC. Kyle Lowry – Toronto
FC. Kevin Love –
Cleveland
FC. Paul Millsap –
Atlanta
FC. Joel Embiid –
Philadelphia
WC. John Wall –
Washington
WC. Kemba Walker –
Charlotte
Yes, I did pick Embiid.
Look, the Eastern Conference frontcourt choices are quite limited
once you get past the starting 5. The one I can (and probably will)
see taking his spot is Paul George. And even a 76ers fan like me
would be OK with that, you can bet Embiid is going to make tons of
ASGs in his career anyway, and rookies making it is a very rare
occurrence.
Western Conference
Starters:
BC. James Harden –
Houston
BC. Stephen Curry –
Golden State
FC. Kevin Durant –
Golden State
FC. Anthony Davis – New
Orleands
FC. Kawhi Leonard – San
Antonio
Some things to note:
- The frontcourt is as anyone would have expected, really. Nothing remotely surprising or upsetting here.
- However, the backcourt choices created quite a controversy by omitting the guy who is averaging 30-10-10, Russell Westbrook. It's a silly thing for sure (blame the fans for that one), but he'll make the game anyway. And Steph would have made it as well, so in the end all will be good.
For reserves now, here are
my picks:
BC. Russell Westbrook –
Oklahoma City
BC. Chris Paul – L.A.
Clippers
FC. Draymond Green –
Golden State
FC. DeMarcus Cousins –
Sacramento
FC. Marc Gasol – Memphis
WC. Rudy Gobert – Utah
WC. Gordon Hayward – Utah
I'm well aware that Chris
Paul will miss this game, and that's why I left Mike Conley off this
list. The Memphis guard should make this All-Star Game, no doubt
about it. However, I think it's likely that that spot will go to
Klay, therefore giving the Warriors a foursome on the team. That
wouldn't surprise me at all, given that I actually wrote Klay
Thompson in a wild card spot before changing my mind and picking two
Jazz players. The odd one out here for coaches is Cousins, who plays
for a well-below-.500 team, usually a bad omen for All-Star reserves.
But his insane numbers should trump that, one would think.
I'm quite sure that I will have missed some of these "predictions" (they're more my choices than predictions, but you get the point) come Jan. 26th, but I feel good about these choices.
Wednesday, January 11, 2017
NBA Over/Under 2016-2017
So before the season started, I wrote down, in my daily planner, the Over/Under lines for the total number of wins for every NBA team and made some predictions. I've done this a few times now during the past few seasons, usually while listening to Bill Simmons' podcast on that very subject. I haven't looked at them since, but I will while copying them on this blog. I know I'll feel smart about some, and quite dumb about others. That's quite normal. Here goes:
Eastern Conference:
- Atlanta Hawks - 43.5 - OVER
- Boston Celtics - 52.5 - OVER
- Brooklyn Nets - 21.5 - UNDER
- Charlotte Hornets - 40.5 - UNDER
- Chicago Bulls - 40.5 - UNDER
- Cleveland Cavaliers - 57 - EVEN
- Detroit Pistons - 44.5 - UNDER
- Indiana Pacers - 44.5 - OVER
- Miami Heat - 35 - UNDER
- Milwaukee Bucks - 36 - OVER
- New York Knicks - 40.5 - OVER
- Orlando Magic - 37 - UNDER
- Philadelphia 76ers - 25 - OVER
- Toronto Raptors - 50 - OVER
- Washington Wizards - 42.5 - OVER
Western Conference:
- Dallas Mavericks - 40 - UNDER
- Denver Nuggets - 37 - UNDER
- Golden State Warriors - 66.5 - OVER
- Houston Rockets - 44.5 - OVER
- Los Angeles Clippers - 54 - EVEN
- Los Angeles Lakers - 25.5 - OVER
- Memphis Grizzlies - 44 - OVER
- Minnesota Timberwolves - 42.5 - OVER
- New Orleans Pelicans - 36.5 - UNDEr
- Oklahoma City Thunder - 45 - EVEN
- Phoenix Suns - 29 - UNDER
- Portland Trail Blazers - 45.5 - OVER
- Sacramento Kings - 32.5 - UNDER
- San Antonio Spurs - 57 - OVER
- Utah Jazz - 47 - OVER
That's about it, I'll write back when the season ends to see how I did. So far I think I'm over 50% right, if not 60%. But some predictions do look quite terrible (like the Wolves and the Cavaliers).
Saturday, January 7, 2017
2017 NFL Playoffs predictions - Wild Card Round
Here's the first of, hopefully, many predictions I'll post here. I'm not pretending to have a expert's grasp on the NFL (far from it, actually). I'm just a fan who reads about the NFL, watches it, listens to podcasts and would like to test his fan's knowledge and "gut-feelings" by predicting.
Lines were taken on the Sports Interaction website. Why this one exactly? Because I know basically nothing about gambling. And that website is the one my sports-loving gambling friends use. I don't, but I heard the name often enough that it stuck with me.
Oakland @ Houston
PICK : Oakland (+3.5)
The reason for this "upset" is quite simple. Oakland has the better team, even with Carr out with injury. The sad thing is that it significantly lowers the Raiders' ceiling (understatement of the year) during these playoffs. Still, I don't trust Houston whatsoever and they usually flame out quite spectacularly in the playoffs. Not only do I think the Raiders will cover the 3.5 points spread, I think they'll win outright.
Lions @ Seahawks
PICK : Seahawks (-8)
We heard from everyone and their mother how the Lions "lucked" into a 9-7 record. I don't really believe in luck, especially not in sports, but there's no question they outperformed their own numbers (They are 29th in weighted DVOA, ahead of only the Jets, the Rams and the Browns. Their expected win total was a tad under 5). The Seahawks should have been in the conversation with the Pats and Cowboys as the front-runners to win Super Bowl LI, but their most important player in their defense is out with that very depressing injury. I love Earl Thomas and wish he were here during those playoffs, the Seahawks are so much more fun when he's there. Still, the Seahawks have playoffs experience behind them and that crazy home field advantage. They will win handily.
Dolphins @ Steelers
PICK : Dolphins (+10.5)
This is simply a matter of me thinking the line is a bit too high. I do believe the Steelers will win this game, but they have been prone to weirdly close games lately, even against inferior competition (won the last 4 games by a total of 18 points). Also, the Dolphins did beat Pittsburgh earlier this season by 15 points. I'm expecting a close game.
Giants @ Packers
PICK : Giants (+5)
Spending a few minutes in sports forums will have you see 3LI all over the place. It does seem pre-destined that the Giants will encounter the Pats for the third time with, again, a lesser (but not bad) team and upset the NFL world. Part of me want to see that narrative play out, if only for the hilarity (Most NFL fans here are Pats fans) and the internet-breaking potential. Also, I don't trust the Packers to come up big when it matters against a world-class defense, as well as they have played the past 6 games.
Going 4-0 wouldn't surprise me, but neither would going 0-4. It's gonna be fun!
Lines were taken on the Sports Interaction website. Why this one exactly? Because I know basically nothing about gambling. And that website is the one my sports-loving gambling friends use. I don't, but I heard the name often enough that it stuck with me.
Oakland @ Houston
PICK : Oakland (+3.5)
The reason for this "upset" is quite simple. Oakland has the better team, even with Carr out with injury. The sad thing is that it significantly lowers the Raiders' ceiling (understatement of the year) during these playoffs. Still, I don't trust Houston whatsoever and they usually flame out quite spectacularly in the playoffs. Not only do I think the Raiders will cover the 3.5 points spread, I think they'll win outright.
Lions @ Seahawks
PICK : Seahawks (-8)
We heard from everyone and their mother how the Lions "lucked" into a 9-7 record. I don't really believe in luck, especially not in sports, but there's no question they outperformed their own numbers (They are 29th in weighted DVOA, ahead of only the Jets, the Rams and the Browns. Their expected win total was a tad under 5). The Seahawks should have been in the conversation with the Pats and Cowboys as the front-runners to win Super Bowl LI, but their most important player in their defense is out with that very depressing injury. I love Earl Thomas and wish he were here during those playoffs, the Seahawks are so much more fun when he's there. Still, the Seahawks have playoffs experience behind them and that crazy home field advantage. They will win handily.
Dolphins @ Steelers
PICK : Dolphins (+10.5)
This is simply a matter of me thinking the line is a bit too high. I do believe the Steelers will win this game, but they have been prone to weirdly close games lately, even against inferior competition (won the last 4 games by a total of 18 points). Also, the Dolphins did beat Pittsburgh earlier this season by 15 points. I'm expecting a close game.
Giants @ Packers
PICK : Giants (+5)
Spending a few minutes in sports forums will have you see 3LI all over the place. It does seem pre-destined that the Giants will encounter the Pats for the third time with, again, a lesser (but not bad) team and upset the NFL world. Part of me want to see that narrative play out, if only for the hilarity (Most NFL fans here are Pats fans) and the internet-breaking potential. Also, I don't trust the Packers to come up big when it matters against a world-class defense, as well as they have played the past 6 games.
Going 4-0 wouldn't surprise me, but neither would going 0-4. It's gonna be fun!
Thursday, January 5, 2017
A fresh start
I thought for a while about how I should phrase this article. Why, exactly, have I decided to stop writing exclusively about basketball? The complete answer would be long, tedious and frankly uninteresting for basically anyone except myself. And that's a stretch, because even me thinking about it has me bored. Let's just say, for the sake of brevity that life happens and people change.
For those extremely precise and detailed reasons, I have decided to change the focus of this blog to every sport I'm watching and following. Sure, it won't be as specialized, but it will certainly be way more active. I'm going to try a few things. I don't know what will work and what won't. Knowing myself, there will be a lot of predictions for the NFL and the NBA. I like predicting stuff (I did about half the NBA season's worth of predictions 2 seasons ago and I wasn't bad at all! I was somewhere are 53-54% against the spread for every single NBA game. Not terrible!). Heck, I'd actually gamble if I had money to spare. I find the temptation quite intense, since it's fun to see if your impressions are accurate or not, but I've never done it and don't plan on doing it.
Predicting every NBA games would be too time-consuming, but doing so for the NFL seems reasonable. I'm going to try to start this weekend. However, I did write down my predictions for the Over/Under of wins for every NBA team at the start of the season, I'll copy it here and see how I stack up come April.
I'll also touch on, if possible and pertinent, the EPL, the Champions League, tennis, Formula One and other sports I like.
I might seem all over the place, but it's actually quite liberating for me. Being NBA-only was a bit like chaining myself to a league I don't watch as much as I used to. This is a blog I do for fun, I'm not pretending to be some sort of sports savant. But I like to have proofs lying around so I can evaluate my "skills".
Next up, I'm going to copy my NBA O/U wins predictions over here. And then I'm going to predict all 4 wild card games this coming weekend.
Here's hoping to a successful fresh start!
For those extremely precise and detailed reasons, I have decided to change the focus of this blog to every sport I'm watching and following. Sure, it won't be as specialized, but it will certainly be way more active. I'm going to try a few things. I don't know what will work and what won't. Knowing myself, there will be a lot of predictions for the NFL and the NBA. I like predicting stuff (I did about half the NBA season's worth of predictions 2 seasons ago and I wasn't bad at all! I was somewhere are 53-54% against the spread for every single NBA game. Not terrible!). Heck, I'd actually gamble if I had money to spare. I find the temptation quite intense, since it's fun to see if your impressions are accurate or not, but I've never done it and don't plan on doing it.
Predicting every NBA games would be too time-consuming, but doing so for the NFL seems reasonable. I'm going to try to start this weekend. However, I did write down my predictions for the Over/Under of wins for every NBA team at the start of the season, I'll copy it here and see how I stack up come April.
I'll also touch on, if possible and pertinent, the EPL, the Champions League, tennis, Formula One and other sports I like.
I might seem all over the place, but it's actually quite liberating for me. Being NBA-only was a bit like chaining myself to a league I don't watch as much as I used to. This is a blog I do for fun, I'm not pretending to be some sort of sports savant. But I like to have proofs lying around so I can evaluate my "skills".
Next up, I'm going to copy my NBA O/U wins predictions over here. And then I'm going to predict all 4 wild card games this coming weekend.
Here's hoping to a successful fresh start!
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