Last week I was 7-8 against the spread, which isn't absolutely terrible, but certainly not what anyone would call good. This week, I changed the source for the lines after a discussion with a friend who does his gambling on another website. His lines were often up to 2 points larger or smaller than the ones I had. This actually made things harder for certain lines. For example, the Raiders line on that other website was -15, here it's -13. At -15 I probably would have taken the points for the Jets, as 2+ touchdowns is a lot. 13 points is just low enough for me to pick the Raiders. In any case, here are my picks.
Texans (+6) @ Bengals
Both teams have crapped the bed in the first game, losing their respective game by 23 and 20 points. I expect both to bounce back, but I trust the Texans a bit more.
Cardinals @ Colts (+7.5)
I switched this pick a few times, but then realized that the Cardinals played a poor game last week and their best offensive player is injured. So it will likely be a low-scoring affair, 13-7 or something.
Patriots (-7) @ Saints
I can't see the Pats starting 0-2 just yet. If it happens I wouldn't be that surprised, but I'm not expecting such a thing to occur.
Eagles (+6) @ Chiefs
This will be a tough one, but I think our D line keeps us close enough, and perhaps put us over the top. My money would be on a 3 or 4-point win by the Chiefs.
Bears @ Bucs (-7.0)
The Bucs haven't played a regular season game yet so they might be rusty, but they have much, much more talent than the Bears and should win their first game handily.
Vikings (+5) @ Steelers
I always feel like the Vikings are overlooked, and I don't think they should be. The line is actually closer than I would have expected, given the mad respect people usually have for Pittsburgh, but I still feel the Vikings can cover and perhaps win.
Browns @ Ravens (-8)
While the Browns' cover last week was impressive, I doubt they can do the same in one of the toughest home fields in the NFL.
Bills (+8.5) @ Panthers
I'm not yet sold on the Panthers. I like the team, I like Cam and they have as a linebacker perhaps my favourite non-Eagles player to watch, Luke Kuechly. I also believe the Bills are actually a decent team,
Titans (-2) @ Jaguars
This is another one I changed my mind on a few times. The Jaguars had an impressive performance last week, registering 10 (!!) sacks against a struggling Houston team. The Titans are a superior team and the line is basically a pick'em at this point.
Jets @ Raiders (-13)
13 points is a lot. Then again, the Jets aren't very good and the Raiders are definitely a top team in the AFC and they're at home. On that absolutely scorching take, I'm picking the Raiders.
Dolphins @ Chargers (-4)
These are two teams I know little about. I'm basing that pick on absolutely nothing except that the Chargers play at home in that "tiny" stadium of theirs.
49ers @ Seahawks (-14)
Man that line is high. Then again, the 49ers have lost 7 straight games to the Seahawks and games played in the state of Washington tend to be blowouts. That's what I'm expecting here.
Cowboys @ Broncos (+2.5)
In a matchup between an amazing offense and an amazing defense, I always pick the amazing defense. Always.
Redskins @ Rams (-3)
The Redskins showed flashes agains the Eagles last week, but except for a few good plays by Josh Norman, the defense looked mediocre. I haven't seen the Rams play last week and you can't put that much stock into beating the poor Colts, but they're definitely a better team in 2017 than they were in 2016.
Packers @ Falcons (-2.5)
Man, what a game this might turn out to be. Signs point to a offensive fest, but so often those games end up being defensive struggles. I'm hyped for this one, that's for certain.
Lions @ Giants (-3)
With the talent surrounding them in the NFC East, this is almost already a must-win for the Giants. If OBJ is ready to go, they won't lose two weeks in a row.
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