Here's the first of, hopefully, many predictions I'll post here. I'm not pretending to have a expert's grasp on the NFL (far from it, actually). I'm just a fan who reads about the NFL, watches it, listens to podcasts and would like to test his fan's knowledge and "gut-feelings" by predicting.
Lines were taken on the Sports Interaction website. Why this one exactly? Because I know basically nothing about gambling. And that website is the one my sports-loving gambling friends use. I don't, but I heard the name often enough that it stuck with me.
Oakland @ Houston
PICK : Oakland (+3.5)
The reason for this "upset" is quite simple. Oakland has the better team, even with Carr out with injury. The sad thing is that it significantly lowers the Raiders' ceiling (understatement of the year) during these playoffs. Still, I don't trust Houston whatsoever and they usually flame out quite spectacularly in the playoffs. Not only do I think the Raiders will cover the 3.5 points spread, I think they'll win outright.
Lions @ Seahawks
PICK : Seahawks (-8)
We heard from everyone and their mother how the Lions "lucked" into a 9-7 record. I don't really believe in luck, especially not in sports, but there's no question they outperformed their own numbers (They are 29th in weighted DVOA, ahead of only the Jets, the Rams and the Browns. Their expected win total was a tad under 5). The Seahawks should have been in the conversation with the Pats and Cowboys as the front-runners to win Super Bowl LI, but their most important player in their defense is out with that very depressing injury. I love Earl Thomas and wish he were here during those playoffs, the Seahawks are so much more fun when he's there. Still, the Seahawks have playoffs experience behind them and that crazy home field advantage. They will win handily.
Dolphins @ Steelers
PICK : Dolphins (+10.5)
This is simply a matter of me thinking the line is a bit too high. I do believe the Steelers will win this game, but they have been prone to weirdly close games lately, even against inferior competition (won the last 4 games by a total of 18 points). Also, the Dolphins did beat Pittsburgh earlier this season by 15 points. I'm expecting a close game.
Giants @ Packers
PICK : Giants (+5)
Spending a few minutes in sports forums will have you see 3LI all over the place. It does seem pre-destined that the Giants will encounter the Pats for the third time with, again, a lesser (but not bad) team and upset the NFL world. Part of me want to see that narrative play out, if only for the hilarity (Most NFL fans here are Pats fans) and the internet-breaking potential. Also, I don't trust the Packers to come up big when it matters against a world-class defense, as well as they have played the past 6 games.
Going 4-0 wouldn't surprise me, but neither would going 0-4. It's gonna be fun!
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