Rams (-2.5) 41 @ 49ers 39 - X
Holy backdoor cover, Batman! I can't believe this game ended the way it did. Everyone and their mother thought it was going to be awful, yet it was, by some margin, the highest scoring game of the week. 80 points.
Ravens (-4) 7 @ Jaguars 44 - X
Almost!
Browns 28 @ Colts (+1) 31 - OK
Yay, I got one right!
Broncos (-3) 16 @ Bills 26 - X
Texans 33 @ Patriots (-13) 36 - X
Hard to believe the Pats got out of that game alive. It really felt like the game belonged to the Texans, who might really be good this year, despite the rocky start to the season.
Dolphins 6 @ Jets (+5.5) 20 - OK
Saints 34 @ Panthers (-5.5) 13 - X
Steelers 17 @ Bears (+8.5) 23 - OK
The Steelers are really struggling aren't they? Especially since they probably should have lost that game in regulation. This game did provide perhaps the most entertaining highlight bit of the whole day, at the very end of the first half. Chicago blocked a FG, then ran it back the whole field before the Bear decided to stop running short of the end zone and was stripped of the ball by an oncoming Steeler, who then batted the ball out of bounds in the end zone. After much debate about what was going to happen, the Bears got the ball back at the half-yard line with a single play to go as the Steelers were charged with a penalty for batting the ball out. Thinking the half over, the Steelers ran into their locker room, before coming back onto the field a few minutes later. Obviously, the Bears tried to go for 7 but got called for a false start, after which they did hit a FG to make the score 17-7. It was quite a bizarre sequence of events.
Giants 24 @ Eagles 27 (-6) - X
God damn we almost blew that game. I would have been really pissed. As a matter of fact, I was really pissed when the Giants took the lead in the 4th. I knew in my heart that OBJ would make the Eagles' life miserable and he did for a while. Then he did a boneheaded "celebration". Just f***ing dance or something. Why do you have to do something that incredibly dumb? He knew he was going to get penalized. I mean, not a single soul on the Giants organization applauded that celebration. He's insanely talented and a joy to watch on the field, but so often he acts like a moron and it's disappointing. I don't mind trash-talking the crowd at all, that's part of the game and he probably feeds off that. I don't mind celebrating by angering the crowd.
Anyway, it's all moot since we won. Thanks to that massive FG by Jake Elliott. Man that kid must feel ecstatic, a true hero to Philadelphians and Eagles fans everywhere. What a crazy game.
Falcons (-3) 30 @ Lions 26 - OK
Talk about crazy games. I understand that's how the rules work, but that 10 second runoff at the end was perhaps the most anti-climactic way to end a game. It just does not feel right to end that way, no matter what the rules say.
Buccaneers 17 @ Vikings 34 - X
I wrote quickly that I'd take the Bucs in that matchup even as there was no line out yet. This looked even smarter as Bradford was ruled out by the end of the week. Welp.
Seahawks 27 @ Titans (-3) 33 - OK
The Seahawks offense woke up a little bit yesterday, as Russell Wilson had a monster game (I benched him, funnily enough, in fantasy. But I won my week by a wide, very wide margin, anyway).
Bengals 24 @ Packers (-9) 27 - X
This is kinda why I don't trust the Packers in the playoffs usually. They really need a shit-ton of bailing out every year (almost every week, even) by Aaron Rodgers. The man is one of the greatest QBs ever, but he can't save them every single time. Yesterday he did, but at some point playing poorly for long stretches catches up to them.
Chiefs (-3) 24 @ Chargers 10 - OK
Raiders (-3) 10 @ Redskins 27 - X
That was a very impressive performance by the Redskins. They definitely looked like the best team in the NFC East yesterday. And they might be, if they can play like that every week. Makes our victory over them in week 1 that much more impressive.
Cowboys (-3) 28 @ Cardinals 17 - OK
I really wanted the Cowboys to lose, no matter what my prediction said. (I always want the Cowboys to lose, let's be clear). Now we have three 2-1 teams in the division. I figured it was going to be a very tightly contested division, and it's really shaping up to be one.
This week: 7-9
Season so far: 24-23
Tuesday, September 26, 2017
Thursday, September 21, 2017
NFL Lines - Week 3 predictions
So many road favorites this week. It's kinda staggering when you hear/read the stats at first (10 out of 16!), but when you go down the list of games, it does make sense. The better teams are playing on the road this week. And in many cases, the road team is significantly better than the home team. I even thought some road favorites had relatively low lines. If I was a betting man, I'd jump on some of them (Broncos and Raiders, first and foremost).
Rams (-2.5) @ 49ers
That's a Thursday night game I'm relatively interested in, since these are two teams I don't see play that often. To be honest, it's mostly the Rams here. Last year I watched only one of their games and they played really great, so my opinion of them is biased.
Ravens (-4) @ Jaguars
Morning football! Usually the weekend mornings are me watching European soccer. If I find the time on my normally busy weekends, I'll try to catch the Ravens, that's for sure.
Browns @ Colts (+1)
While I believe the Browns aren't as bad this year, I'm still not ready to bet them on the road, even against an even poopier team in the Colts.
Broncos (-3) @ Bills
The Bills haven't been especially bad, but they can't score it seems. While the Broncos offense isn't world-class, it's certainly able to put a few points on the board.
Texans @ Patriots (-13)
It seems to me the Pats always destroy the Texans. Looking at the past few matchups, the Pats have indeed beaten Houston by large margins lately. 28, 13, 3, 21, 27, 18. Only one legitimately close game in this lot.
Dolphins @ Jets (+5.5)
Saints @ Panthers (-5.5)
I don't know what to make of either teams, but at least Carolina's defense has been excellent so far (6 points allowed in two games).
Steelers @ Bears (+8.5)
Giants @ Eagles (-6)
The Eagles have been actually good in the opening couple of weeks. The Giants have been quite the opposite. Add the fact that it's our home opener and I think this game is ours. The only thing I can see playing a factor in a hypothetical loss is if OBJ explodes against our relatively weak secondary.
Falcons (-3) @ Lions
The Lions might be much better than most people anticipated. Or not. They're a team that could go 4-12 this season or 12-4 and I wouldn't bat an eye. At the same time, I think the Falcons are going to be the cream of the crop in the NFC this season once again, so I'm not betting against them.
Buccaneers @ Vikings
No line yet! If I treat this as a pick'em, which it very well might be, I'd pick the Buccaneers.
Seahawks @ Titans (-3)
The Seahawks have to show me they have a functional offense for me to bet for them on the road ever again. It's completely ridiculous that a team with such a stellar defense is so poopy on offense. And it's not like they don't have skilled players on offense.
Bengals @ Packers (-9)
The Bengals have been horrendous so far. It's in Lambeau. I'm guessing a beatdown here.
Chiefs (-3) @ Chargers
Line seems quite low as the Chiefs have been stellar so far.
Raiders (-3) @ Redskins
Another seemingly low line here. The Redskins aren't bad by any means but the Raiders look vastly superior.
Cowboys (-3) @ Cardinals
Tough one here. It's the Cards home opener after two lackluster games. The Cowboys have been exposed badly last week. I expect both teams to come out guns blazing. In such a game, I expect the Cowboys to be better. But I want them to lose 56-0 still.
Season so far: 17-14
Rams (-2.5) @ 49ers
That's a Thursday night game I'm relatively interested in, since these are two teams I don't see play that often. To be honest, it's mostly the Rams here. Last year I watched only one of their games and they played really great, so my opinion of them is biased.
Ravens (-4) @ Jaguars
Morning football! Usually the weekend mornings are me watching European soccer. If I find the time on my normally busy weekends, I'll try to catch the Ravens, that's for sure.
Browns @ Colts (+1)
While I believe the Browns aren't as bad this year, I'm still not ready to bet them on the road, even against an even poopier team in the Colts.
Broncos (-3) @ Bills
The Bills haven't been especially bad, but they can't score it seems. While the Broncos offense isn't world-class, it's certainly able to put a few points on the board.
Texans @ Patriots (-13)
It seems to me the Pats always destroy the Texans. Looking at the past few matchups, the Pats have indeed beaten Houston by large margins lately. 28, 13, 3, 21, 27, 18. Only one legitimately close game in this lot.
Dolphins @ Jets (+5.5)
Saints @ Panthers (-5.5)
I don't know what to make of either teams, but at least Carolina's defense has been excellent so far (6 points allowed in two games).
Steelers @ Bears (+8.5)
Giants @ Eagles (-6)
The Eagles have been actually good in the opening couple of weeks. The Giants have been quite the opposite. Add the fact that it's our home opener and I think this game is ours. The only thing I can see playing a factor in a hypothetical loss is if OBJ explodes against our relatively weak secondary.
Falcons (-3) @ Lions
The Lions might be much better than most people anticipated. Or not. They're a team that could go 4-12 this season or 12-4 and I wouldn't bat an eye. At the same time, I think the Falcons are going to be the cream of the crop in the NFC this season once again, so I'm not betting against them.
Buccaneers @ Vikings
No line yet! If I treat this as a pick'em, which it very well might be, I'd pick the Buccaneers.
Seahawks @ Titans (-3)
The Seahawks have to show me they have a functional offense for me to bet for them on the road ever again. It's completely ridiculous that a team with such a stellar defense is so poopy on offense. And it's not like they don't have skilled players on offense.
Bengals @ Packers (-9)
The Bengals have been horrendous so far. It's in Lambeau. I'm guessing a beatdown here.
Chiefs (-3) @ Chargers
Line seems quite low as the Chiefs have been stellar so far.
Raiders (-3) @ Redskins
Another seemingly low line here. The Redskins aren't bad by any means but the Raiders look vastly superior.
Cowboys (-3) @ Cardinals
Tough one here. It's the Cards home opener after two lackluster games. The Cowboys have been exposed badly last week. I expect both teams to come out guns blazing. In such a game, I expect the Cowboys to be better. But I want them to lose 56-0 still.
Season so far: 17-14
Tuesday, September 19, 2017
NFL Lines - Week 2 results
This week was much better than the opening one (10-6 against 7-8). I was mostly happy with how my picks turned out, even if I grossly misjudged some teams.
Texans (+6) 13 @ Bengals 9 - OK
Came in time for the second half after a parents-teacher meeting. What a terrible game, but at least we had a superb highlight out of it when Watson bamboozled the whole Bengals defense with that long TD run. Other than that, the Bengals are really bad so far, with a staggering 4.5 points per game so far.
Cardinals 16 @ Colts (+7.5) 13 - OK
OVERTIME! That I missed when I closed DAZN for a few seconds. Did not look like a great game.
Patriots (-7) 36 @ Saints 20 - OK
Did not see that game, but was happy (for my fantasy team) Gronk exploded. Was not surprised the Pats blew out the Saints. Not at all.
Eagles (+6) @ Chiefs 27 - X
It was a very close game up until that unfortunate interception after Wentz' pass bounced off a linebacker's helmet right to the hands of a linesman. Then it kinda unraveled for the Eagles. A few bright spots for the birds as Jeffery came alive and our pass rush was mostly good. A late touchdown put the score back to a respectable (and ultimately more representative of the play disparity between both teams) 7 point loss. A glimmer of hope with that successful onside kick and the ensuing Hail Mary. The prayer ended up being slightly too long in a sea of arms.
Bears 7 @ Bucs (-7.0) 29 - OK
Vikings (+5) 9 @ Steelers 26 - X
Browns 10 @ Ravens (-8) 24 - OK
I'm really happy the Ravens won (favourite AFC team, for anyone wondering), but really confused and frustrated at myself for putting Perriman into my lineup for a grand total of zero fantasy point. I should have left Gore in, I would have had about 10 points instead of zero. I'm dropping Perriman tomorrow. Two games, eight targets, one catch, five yards. You see my point.
Bills (+8.5) 3 @ Panthers 9 - OK
That has to be the less convincing 2-0 start in recent memories by the Panthers.
Titans (-2) 37 @ Jaguars 16 - OK
Jets 20 @ Raiders (-13) 42 - OK
Dolphins 19 @ Chargers (-4) 17 - X
49ers 9 @ Seahawks (-14) 12 -X
Well that looked like a terrible game. There's no way I'm starting Russell Wilson next week, not with my second QB, future multiple time MVP Carson Wentz, throwing for 300+ yards like it was nothing every week. Seriously though, that offensive line is horrendous.
Cowboys 17 @ Broncos (+2.5) 42 - OK
The Broncos' defense is freakishly good. Sure, I don't think it was a great game plan by the Cowboys (yes, I'm still on the "Jason Garrett is not a very good coach" side of that debate) to have their 2nd year QB throw 50 times against arguably the best secondary in the NFL. To be fair, their run defense did their job against a world-class offensive line so there wasn't much to gain there anyway. I don't know what the Broncos' ceiling is right now, but I feel like it could be much higher than we all thought at the beginning of the season.
Redskins 27 @ Rams (-3) 20 - X
Packers 23 @ Falcons (-2.5) 34 - OK
The Falcons look every bit as deadly as they did last year, despite the best efforts from many "experts" to declare last year's performance a fluke (a criticism mostly aimed at Matt Ryan). Considering Seattle's absolutely horrendous offensive line, it's safe to say th
Lions 24 @ Giants (-3) 10 - X
This week: 10-6
Season so far: 17-14
Texans (+6) 13 @ Bengals 9 - OK
Came in time for the second half after a parents-teacher meeting. What a terrible game, but at least we had a superb highlight out of it when Watson bamboozled the whole Bengals defense with that long TD run. Other than that, the Bengals are really bad so far, with a staggering 4.5 points per game so far.
Cardinals 16 @ Colts (+7.5) 13 - OK
OVERTIME! That I missed when I closed DAZN for a few seconds. Did not look like a great game.
Patriots (-7) 36 @ Saints 20 - OK
Did not see that game, but was happy (for my fantasy team) Gronk exploded. Was not surprised the Pats blew out the Saints. Not at all.
Eagles (+6) @ Chiefs 27 - X
It was a very close game up until that unfortunate interception after Wentz' pass bounced off a linebacker's helmet right to the hands of a linesman. Then it kinda unraveled for the Eagles. A few bright spots for the birds as Jeffery came alive and our pass rush was mostly good. A late touchdown put the score back to a respectable (and ultimately more representative of the play disparity between both teams) 7 point loss. A glimmer of hope with that successful onside kick and the ensuing Hail Mary. The prayer ended up being slightly too long in a sea of arms.
Bears 7 @ Bucs (-7.0) 29 - OK
Vikings (+5) 9 @ Steelers 26 - X
Browns 10 @ Ravens (-8) 24 - OK
I'm really happy the Ravens won (favourite AFC team, for anyone wondering), but really confused and frustrated at myself for putting Perriman into my lineup for a grand total of zero fantasy point. I should have left Gore in, I would have had about 10 points instead of zero. I'm dropping Perriman tomorrow. Two games, eight targets, one catch, five yards. You see my point.
Bills (+8.5) 3 @ Panthers 9 - OK
That has to be the less convincing 2-0 start in recent memories by the Panthers.
Titans (-2) 37 @ Jaguars 16 - OK
Jets 20 @ Raiders (-13) 42 - OK
Dolphins 19 @ Chargers (-4) 17 - X
49ers 9 @ Seahawks (-14) 12 -X
Well that looked like a terrible game. There's no way I'm starting Russell Wilson next week, not with my second QB, future multiple time MVP Carson Wentz, throwing for 300+ yards like it was nothing every week. Seriously though, that offensive line is horrendous.
Cowboys 17 @ Broncos (+2.5) 42 - OK
The Broncos' defense is freakishly good. Sure, I don't think it was a great game plan by the Cowboys (yes, I'm still on the "Jason Garrett is not a very good coach" side of that debate) to have their 2nd year QB throw 50 times against arguably the best secondary in the NFL. To be fair, their run defense did their job against a world-class offensive line so there wasn't much to gain there anyway. I don't know what the Broncos' ceiling is right now, but I feel like it could be much higher than we all thought at the beginning of the season.
Redskins 27 @ Rams (-3) 20 - X
Packers 23 @ Falcons (-2.5) 34 - OK
The Falcons look every bit as deadly as they did last year, despite the best efforts from many "experts" to declare last year's performance a fluke (a criticism mostly aimed at Matt Ryan). Considering Seattle's absolutely horrendous offensive line, it's safe to say th
Lions 24 @ Giants (-3) 10 - X
This week: 10-6
Season so far: 17-14
Friday, September 15, 2017
NFL Lines - Week 2 predictions
Last week I was 7-8 against the spread, which isn't absolutely terrible, but certainly not what anyone would call good. This week, I changed the source for the lines after a discussion with a friend who does his gambling on another website. His lines were often up to 2 points larger or smaller than the ones I had. This actually made things harder for certain lines. For example, the Raiders line on that other website was -15, here it's -13. At -15 I probably would have taken the points for the Jets, as 2+ touchdowns is a lot. 13 points is just low enough for me to pick the Raiders. In any case, here are my picks.
Texans (+6) @ Bengals
Both teams have crapped the bed in the first game, losing their respective game by 23 and 20 points. I expect both to bounce back, but I trust the Texans a bit more.
Cardinals @ Colts (+7.5)
I switched this pick a few times, but then realized that the Cardinals played a poor game last week and their best offensive player is injured. So it will likely be a low-scoring affair, 13-7 or something.
Patriots (-7) @ Saints
I can't see the Pats starting 0-2 just yet. If it happens I wouldn't be that surprised, but I'm not expecting such a thing to occur.
Eagles (+6) @ Chiefs
This will be a tough one, but I think our D line keeps us close enough, and perhaps put us over the top. My money would be on a 3 or 4-point win by the Chiefs.
Bears @ Bucs (-7.0)
The Bucs haven't played a regular season game yet so they might be rusty, but they have much, much more talent than the Bears and should win their first game handily.
Vikings (+5) @ Steelers
I always feel like the Vikings are overlooked, and I don't think they should be. The line is actually closer than I would have expected, given the mad respect people usually have for Pittsburgh, but I still feel the Vikings can cover and perhaps win.
Browns @ Ravens (-8)
While the Browns' cover last week was impressive, I doubt they can do the same in one of the toughest home fields in the NFL.
Bills (+8.5) @ Panthers
I'm not yet sold on the Panthers. I like the team, I like Cam and they have as a linebacker perhaps my favourite non-Eagles player to watch, Luke Kuechly. I also believe the Bills are actually a decent team,
Titans (-2) @ Jaguars
This is another one I changed my mind on a few times. The Jaguars had an impressive performance last week, registering 10 (!!) sacks against a struggling Houston team. The Titans are a superior team and the line is basically a pick'em at this point.
Jets @ Raiders (-13)
13 points is a lot. Then again, the Jets aren't very good and the Raiders are definitely a top team in the AFC and they're at home. On that absolutely scorching take, I'm picking the Raiders.
Dolphins @ Chargers (-4)
These are two teams I know little about. I'm basing that pick on absolutely nothing except that the Chargers play at home in that "tiny" stadium of theirs.
49ers @ Seahawks (-14)
Man that line is high. Then again, the 49ers have lost 7 straight games to the Seahawks and games played in the state of Washington tend to be blowouts. That's what I'm expecting here.
Cowboys @ Broncos (+2.5)
In a matchup between an amazing offense and an amazing defense, I always pick the amazing defense. Always.
Redskins @ Rams (-3)
The Redskins showed flashes agains the Eagles last week, but except for a few good plays by Josh Norman, the defense looked mediocre. I haven't seen the Rams play last week and you can't put that much stock into beating the poor Colts, but they're definitely a better team in 2017 than they were in 2016.
Packers @ Falcons (-2.5)
Man, what a game this might turn out to be. Signs point to a offensive fest, but so often those games end up being defensive struggles. I'm hyped for this one, that's for certain.
Lions @ Giants (-3)
With the talent surrounding them in the NFC East, this is almost already a must-win for the Giants. If OBJ is ready to go, they won't lose two weeks in a row.
Texans (+6) @ Bengals
Both teams have crapped the bed in the first game, losing their respective game by 23 and 20 points. I expect both to bounce back, but I trust the Texans a bit more.
Cardinals @ Colts (+7.5)
I switched this pick a few times, but then realized that the Cardinals played a poor game last week and their best offensive player is injured. So it will likely be a low-scoring affair, 13-7 or something.
Patriots (-7) @ Saints
I can't see the Pats starting 0-2 just yet. If it happens I wouldn't be that surprised, but I'm not expecting such a thing to occur.
Eagles (+6) @ Chiefs
This will be a tough one, but I think our D line keeps us close enough, and perhaps put us over the top. My money would be on a 3 or 4-point win by the Chiefs.
Bears @ Bucs (-7.0)
The Bucs haven't played a regular season game yet so they might be rusty, but they have much, much more talent than the Bears and should win their first game handily.
Vikings (+5) @ Steelers
I always feel like the Vikings are overlooked, and I don't think they should be. The line is actually closer than I would have expected, given the mad respect people usually have for Pittsburgh, but I still feel the Vikings can cover and perhaps win.
Browns @ Ravens (-8)
While the Browns' cover last week was impressive, I doubt they can do the same in one of the toughest home fields in the NFL.
Bills (+8.5) @ Panthers
I'm not yet sold on the Panthers. I like the team, I like Cam and they have as a linebacker perhaps my favourite non-Eagles player to watch, Luke Kuechly. I also believe the Bills are actually a decent team,
Titans (-2) @ Jaguars
This is another one I changed my mind on a few times. The Jaguars had an impressive performance last week, registering 10 (!!) sacks against a struggling Houston team. The Titans are a superior team and the line is basically a pick'em at this point.
Jets @ Raiders (-13)
13 points is a lot. Then again, the Jets aren't very good and the Raiders are definitely a top team in the AFC and they're at home. On that absolutely scorching take, I'm picking the Raiders.
Dolphins @ Chargers (-4)
These are two teams I know little about. I'm basing that pick on absolutely nothing except that the Chargers play at home in that "tiny" stadium of theirs.
49ers @ Seahawks (-14)
Man that line is high. Then again, the 49ers have lost 7 straight games to the Seahawks and games played in the state of Washington tend to be blowouts. That's what I'm expecting here.
Cowboys @ Broncos (+2.5)
In a matchup between an amazing offense and an amazing defense, I always pick the amazing defense. Always.
Redskins @ Rams (-3)
The Redskins showed flashes agains the Eagles last week, but except for a few good plays by Josh Norman, the defense looked mediocre. I haven't seen the Rams play last week and you can't put that much stock into beating the poor Colts, but they're definitely a better team in 2017 than they were in 2016.
Packers @ Falcons (-2.5)
Man, what a game this might turn out to be. Signs point to a offensive fest, but so often those games end up being defensive struggles. I'm hyped for this one, that's for certain.
Lions @ Giants (-3)
With the talent surrounding them in the NFC East, this is almost already a must-win for the Giants. If OBJ is ready to go, they won't lose two weeks in a row.
Tuesday, September 12, 2017
NFL Lines - Week 1 results
Overall, it was not a great week for me trying to pick the spread (7-8). Even picking an outright winner didn't work as well as I'd hoped (Texans, Pats, Cards, Bengals, Seahawks and Giants all lost games I'd thought they'd win.
Chiefs (+9.0) 42 @ Patriots 27 - OK
Jets 12 @ Bills (-7.5) 21 - OK
Cardinals (-1.5) 23 @ Lions 35 - X
Eagles (-1.5) 30 @ Redskins 17 - OK
F*** yeah! And the Eagles defense scored 25 points for me in fantasy, more than any other player.
Jaguars 29 @ Texans (-6) 7 - X
Hey now, I was only 28 points off on this one. Not that bad right? Right?
Raiders (+2) 26 @ Titans 16 - OK
Steelers (-9) 21 @ Browns 18 - X
Much tighter than I think anybody expected.
Falcons (-7) 23 @ Bears 17 - X
Ravens 20 @ Bengals (-3) 0 (PUSH) - X
You don't see a shutout that often in this league. Impressive stuff by the Ravens.
Colts 9 @ Rams (-3.5) 46 - OK
The Colts are not very good at football for an NFL team. That's my hot take of the week.
Panthers (-5.5) 23@ 49ers 3 - OK
Neither are the 49ers.
Seahawks (+3.0) 9 @ Green Bay 17 - X
That Seahawks defense is absolutely ridiculous. I was amazed that the Packers managed to score that many points.
Giants (+4) 3 @ Cowboys 19 - X
Ezekiel Elliot is a freaking monster. At times, he shredded what was the second best defense in the League in 2016. It's insane.
Oh, and the Giants can't do shit on offense without Beckham it seems. I'm guessing next match between both team will be very, very different if he's 100%.
Saints 19 @ Vikings (-3.5) 29 - OK
Chargers 21 @ Broncos (-3.5) 24 - X
This week: 7-8
Season so far: 7-8
Chiefs (+9.0) 42 @ Patriots 27 - OK
Jets 12 @ Bills (-7.5) 21 - OK
Cardinals (-1.5) 23 @ Lions 35 - X
Eagles (-1.5) 30 @ Redskins 17 - OK
F*** yeah! And the Eagles defense scored 25 points for me in fantasy, more than any other player.
Jaguars 29 @ Texans (-6) 7 - X
Hey now, I was only 28 points off on this one. Not that bad right? Right?
Raiders (+2) 26 @ Titans 16 - OK
Steelers (-9) 21 @ Browns 18 - X
Much tighter than I think anybody expected.
Falcons (-7) 23 @ Bears 17 - X
Ravens 20 @ Bengals (-3) 0 (PUSH) - X
You don't see a shutout that often in this league. Impressive stuff by the Ravens.
Colts 9 @ Rams (-3.5) 46 - OK
The Colts are not very good at football for an NFL team. That's my hot take of the week.
Panthers (-5.5) 23@ 49ers 3 - OK
Neither are the 49ers.
Seahawks (+3.0) 9 @ Green Bay 17 - X
That Seahawks defense is absolutely ridiculous. I was amazed that the Packers managed to score that many points.
Giants (+4) 3 @ Cowboys 19 - X
Ezekiel Elliot is a freaking monster. At times, he shredded what was the second best defense in the League in 2016. It's insane.
Oh, and the Giants can't do shit on offense without Beckham it seems. I'm guessing next match between both team will be very, very different if he's 100%.
Saints 19 @ Vikings (-3.5) 29 - OK
Chargers 21 @ Broncos (-3.5) 24 - X
This week: 7-8
Season so far: 7-8
Saturday, September 9, 2017
NFL Week 1 Picks
As the season progresses, I might have longer write-ups for individual games. For now, I'm just pointing out general impressions.
Chiefs (+9.0) @ Patriots
I'm certain the Chiefs will cover even if they lose, but I still predict a relatively close game.
Jets @ Bills (-7.5)
The Jets are just terrible, I don't feel okay picking them any time soon. Also, I have Shady McCoy on my fantasy so I want him to go for 25 rushes, 168 yards and 2 TDs. At least.
Cardinals (-1.5) @ Lions
As I think will be the case with the Panthers, the Cardinals are too good of a team to have another sub-500 season. I have no grasp on the Lions yet though. I see the talent, especially on offense, but I don't know whether it'll come together.
Eagles (-1.5) @ Redskins
Extremely surprising line, as I think the Redskins and my team, the Eagles, are very closely matched and homefield usually reigns supreme in such cases. I like my team still, so I'll take it in a very close game.
Jaguars @ Texans (-6)
Perhaps the toughest matchup for me to pick this week. Ultimately, the Jaguars almost always disappoint and JJ Watt is back. So there.
Raiders (+2) @ Titans
Another very interesting matchup. The Titans are supposed to be much better this year and the Raiders are picked by many experts to regress a little bit. This is probably why the line is in the Titans' favour. I'm not sold just yet, although I do expect a very close game.
Steelers (-9) @ Browns
The Steelers are arguably the most loaded team in the league on offense and are more than competent on defense. The Browns are the Browns.
Falcons (-7) @ Bears
I really like the Bears and I would love to see them be a good football team again, but the Falcons are much, much better. This might be a blowout.
Ravens @ Bengals (-3) (PUSH)
Seems like the perfect line for this matchup, one of the most interesting of the weekend for me (the Ravens are my "official" favourite AFC team).
Colts @ Rams (-3.5)
This is one game I have zero interest in. The Rams' defense should reign supreme over the Colts.
Panthers (-5.5) @ 49ers
I believe in a Panthers' bounce back season this year. If Cam and Luke are healthy, they should be right there with the Packers and Seahawks atop the NFC in January.
Seahawks (+3.0) @ Green Bay
This is the best game of the week, and I can't see any of these team winning by more than 3-4 points. I trust the Seahawks slightly more than I do the Packers though as, in my book, defense trumps offense most of the time.
Giants (+4) @ Cowboys
I know Ezekiel is playing this weekend, but the Giants play the Cowboys so well. I feel they are arguably the best team in the always very competitive NFC East. This is going to be a fun one!
Saints @ Vikings (-3.5)
Two teams I know very little about here, as both have been mediocre for a few years now and aren't usually featured at length in podcasts or on national TV (not that it matters this year for me). I do however trust defensive teams more than offensive ones.
Chargers @ Broncos (-3.5)
I don't have a good feel on either these teams I don't watch that regularly, but I know the Broncos have an insanely talented defense. Also this game is so late there's no chance I'm watching more than maybe a quarter.
Chiefs (+9.0) @ Patriots
I'm certain the Chiefs will cover even if they lose, but I still predict a relatively close game.
Jets @ Bills (-7.5)
The Jets are just terrible, I don't feel okay picking them any time soon. Also, I have Shady McCoy on my fantasy so I want him to go for 25 rushes, 168 yards and 2 TDs. At least.
Cardinals (-1.5) @ Lions
As I think will be the case with the Panthers, the Cardinals are too good of a team to have another sub-500 season. I have no grasp on the Lions yet though. I see the talent, especially on offense, but I don't know whether it'll come together.
Eagles (-1.5) @ Redskins
Extremely surprising line, as I think the Redskins and my team, the Eagles, are very closely matched and homefield usually reigns supreme in such cases. I like my team still, so I'll take it in a very close game.
Jaguars @ Texans (-6)
Perhaps the toughest matchup for me to pick this week. Ultimately, the Jaguars almost always disappoint and JJ Watt is back. So there.
Raiders (+2) @ Titans
Another very interesting matchup. The Titans are supposed to be much better this year and the Raiders are picked by many experts to regress a little bit. This is probably why the line is in the Titans' favour. I'm not sold just yet, although I do expect a very close game.
Steelers (-9) @ Browns
The Steelers are arguably the most loaded team in the league on offense and are more than competent on defense. The Browns are the Browns.
Falcons (-7) @ Bears
I really like the Bears and I would love to see them be a good football team again, but the Falcons are much, much better. This might be a blowout.
Ravens @ Bengals (-3) (PUSH)
Seems like the perfect line for this matchup, one of the most interesting of the weekend for me (the Ravens are my "official" favourite AFC team).
Colts @ Rams (-3.5)
This is one game I have zero interest in. The Rams' defense should reign supreme over the Colts.
Panthers (-5.5) @ 49ers
I believe in a Panthers' bounce back season this year. If Cam and Luke are healthy, they should be right there with the Packers and Seahawks atop the NFC in January.
Seahawks (+3.0) @ Green Bay
This is the best game of the week, and I can't see any of these team winning by more than 3-4 points. I trust the Seahawks slightly more than I do the Packers though as, in my book, defense trumps offense most of the time.
Giants (+4) @ Cowboys
I know Ezekiel is playing this weekend, but the Giants play the Cowboys so well. I feel they are arguably the best team in the always very competitive NFC East. This is going to be a fun one!
Saints @ Vikings (-3.5)
Two teams I know very little about here, as both have been mediocre for a few years now and aren't usually featured at length in podcasts or on national TV (not that it matters this year for me). I do however trust defensive teams more than offensive ones.
Chargers @ Broncos (-3.5)
I don't have a good feel on either these teams I don't watch that regularly, but I know the Broncos have an insanely talented defense. Also this game is so late there's no chance I'm watching more than maybe a quarter.
Thursday, September 7, 2017
NFL wins over/under predictions for the 2017 season
I don't feel nearly as confident doing this as I did last year for the NBA where I only got 60% right, so I'm not expecting incredible results. It'll be fun nonetheless.
AFC
Jets - 4.5
My pick: UNDER
Patriots - 12.5
My pick: OVER
Bills - 6.0
My pick: EVEN
Dolphins - 7.5
My pick: OVER
Texans - 8.5
My pick: UNDER
Colts - 9.0
My pick: UNDER
Titans - 8.5
My pick: OVER
Jaguars - 6.0
My pick: UNDER
Bengals - 8.5
My pick: OVER
Ravens - 9.0
My pick: EVEN
Steelers - 10.5
My pick: OVER
Browns - 4.5
My pick: UNDER
Chargers - 7.5
My pick: OVER
Broncos - 8.5
My pick: UNDER
Chiefs - 9.0
My pick: OVER
Raiders - 10
My pick: EVEN
NFC
Giants - 9.0
My pick: Over
Eagles - 8.0
My pick: My heart says WAAAAY OVER but it's more likely to be EVEN.
Cowboys - 9.5
My pick: UNDER
Redskins - 7.5
My pick: UNDER
Falcons - 9.5
My pick: OVER
Panthers - 8.5
My pick: OVER
Saints - 8.0
My pick: UNDER
Buccaneers - 8.5
My pick: OVER
Bears - 5.5
My pick: UNDER
Packers - 10
My pick: OVER
Vikings - 8.5
My pick: UNDER
Lions - 8.0
My pick: EVEN
Rams - 5.5
My pick: UNDER
49ers - 4.5
My pick: UNDER
Seahawks - 10.5
My pick: OVER
Cardinals - 8.0
My pick: OVER
Here we are! I'm hoping for 16 our of 32. I don't have any money on this, but going even would be cool.
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