Tuesday, October 31, 2017

NFL Lines - Week 8 results

Dolphins 0 @ Ravens 1 000 000 - X
I wrote that I did not know what to expect from both those teams. This still holds true.

Vikings 33 @ Browns (+9.5) 16 - X
Did not see the game but apparently this Browns cover looked pretty good for a good long while. Oh well.

Falcons (-4.5) 25 @ Jets 20 - OK
The Falcons still aren't the 2016 Falcons, but still managed to cover.

Panthers (+2) 17 @ Bucs 3 - OK

Bears 12 @ Saints (-9) 20 - X
Surprising that Brees threw for almost 300 yards on 80% + efficiency and he still did not throw a TD.

Colts (+11) 23 @ Bengals 24 - OK

Chargers 13@ Patriots 21 (-6.5) - OK

Raiders 14 @ Bills (-2.5) 34 - OK
I think people got way too high on the Raiders after that weird win against the Chiefs. They still aren't a very good team and the Bills are mostly underrated. They're not that far behind the Pats/Chiefs/Steelers trio as far as I'm concerned.

49ers 10 @ Eagles (-13) 33 - OK
Now that Zeke is definitely out for 6 games and we have one of the easiest sleights of games going forward, I firmly believe we should be tops or near the top of the NFC for the playoffs.

Texans 38 @ Seahawks (-5.5) 41 - X
What a ridiculous scoreline.

Cowboys 33 @ Redskins (+2) 19 - X

Steelers 20 @ Lions (+3) 15 - X
That really should have been a cover, if not a win, for the Lions.

Broncos 19 @ Chiefs (-7.0) 29 - OK

This week: 7-6
Season so far: 51-66-2

Wednesday, October 25, 2017

NFL Lines - Week 8 predictions

Dolphins (+3)  @ Ravens
I honestly don't know what to expect anymore from either those teams. I would never put money on that game.

Vikings @ Browns (+9.5)
Seems a tad too high.

Falcons (-4.5) @ Jets

Panthers (+2) @ Bucs

Bears @ Saints (-9)

Colts (+11) @ Bengals
The Colts aren't good and should definitely fire their head coach. However, the Bengals aren't great either and 11 points seems high.

Chargers @ Patriots (-6.5)
Just low enough. At 7 or more I would have picked the Chargers to cover.

Raiders @ Bills (-2.5)

49ers @ Eagles (-13)
That's really high. I would have never guessed that we'd be favorites by 13 points at any points this season. I mean, yes we're playing great, but we're really flawed in a few aspects of the game. Our QB and our world class D-Line has brought us to 6-1, but I would expect our Pythagorean wins to be at least 15% lower. I can't find it after a quick google search, but Football Outsiders has our total of expecting wins at 5.4. We are good, I'm not denying that, but I need to see more from us to say if we're actually the best team in the NFC, let alone the NFL.

Texans @ Seahawks (-5.5)

Cowboys @ Redskins (+2)
I'm still a believer in the Redskins. I think they are better than the Cowboys and honestly can't believe they are underdogs at home.

Steelers @ Lions (+3)

Broncos @ Chiefs (-7.0)
After a tough loss and a longer rest, my guess is that the Chiefs will come out firing on all cylinders.

Season so far: 44-60-2

Tuesday, October 24, 2017

NFL Lines - Week 7 results

Chiefs (-3) 30 @ Raiders 31 - X
What a bizarre and unpleasant finish if you were rooting for the Chiefs. I'm not saying the penalties weren't warranted or anything of the sort, but it was frustrating to watch, thinking a team had won twice before seeing that yellow flash on the screen. The Raiders proved more resilient than I had expected. I don't know what that means for their season (they're still 3-4), but it had to be their best game of the season, right?

Buccaneers 27 @ Bills (-3) 30 - PUSH

Cardinals 0 @ Rams (-3.5) 33 - OK

Ravens 16 @ Vikings (-6) 24 - OK

Panthers (-6) 3 @ Bears 17 - X
One surprising result. Even more surprising here is that the two touchdowns were defensive ones and that the winning QB completed 4 passes.

Jaguars 27 @ Colts (+3) 0 - X
Another shutout. Those early games were dreadful.

Saints 26 @ Packers (+5.5) 17 - X

Jets 28 @ Dolphins (-3) 31 - PUSH

Titans (-5.5) 12 @ Browns 9 - X
Hey the Browns covered!

Cowboys 40 @ 49ers (+6) 10 - X

Bengals 14 @ Steelers (-5.5) 29 - OK

Broncos (+1) 0 @ Chargers 21 - X
A third shutout by 20+ points. Oh my.

Seahawks 24 @ Giants (+5.5) 7 - X

Falcons (+3.5) 7 @ Patriots 24 - X
That Falcons offense doesn't look right. I'm far from a football expert, but some play calls felt strange, and quite often ineffective. Even if he had a relatively good completion %, Matt Ryan did miss many open receivers. The pressure from the Pats line was good, but the coverage wasn't that great, and very offense incompletions were due to Ryan overshooting the receiver or, for that Julio Jones attempt in the end zone, too close to the DB. Not taking anything away from the Pats. They played better than I've seen them on defense all year (which is not saying much, to be honest). Did not watch all their games, but from the 3-4 I saw it was their best performance. Yet I'm still not convinced because of how many open receivers there were.

Redskins @ Eagles (-4.5)
Oh man, this game started off so terribly. Out of the first 3 offensive plays we ran, we managed to have 4 penalties called against us. I was thinking "Oh man, this is going to be one of those games, isn't it?". I was prepared for the worst. Then my team showed that perhaps they really were a Super Bowl contender. Our D-Line is extremely talented and makes up for an average secondary. Sadly we lost one of our best LBs in Hicks. In any case, our D was very solid the whole game against an always-underrated Kirk Cousins. It amazes me that this guy is still looked upon as an average QB when he's definitely top 10 in my book. Talking about top QBs in the League, Wentz looked like a freaking Hall of Fame-bound quarterback yesterday. It was amazing. The pick early was stupid, but the rest of the game he was absolutely outstanding. Two plays stand out to me. There's that Houdini trick when he evaded what looked like a surefire sack to run for 17 yards and save a very vital drive. The other one was the TD throw to Clement in the corner of the end zone. It was a fantastically difficult play to pull off under pressure. He's so poised and controlled, and he can pull off plays out of nowhere, it's Aaron Rodgers-esque. Obviously he's FAR from being Rodgers as a second-year QB, but he shows so many flashes of brilliance it's hard not to get excited, even for a mostly apprehensive fan like me.

This week: 4-9-2
Season so far: 44-60-2

Man, this whole thing is really falling apart isn't it? At least the Eagles are winning.

Thursday, October 19, 2017

NFL Lines - Week 7 predictions

Chiefs (-3) @ Raiders
This might another good TNF, but now we're not even sure the Raiders are good. It's a division matchup, on a short week, and the best team here is by far the Chiefs. Chiefs it is!

Bucs @ Bills (-3)

Cardinals @ Rams (-3.5)

Ravens @ Vikings (-6)

Panthers (-6) @ Bears

Jaguars @ Colts (+3)

Saints @ Packers (+5.5)

Jets @ Dolphins (-3)

Titans (-5.5) @ Browns
I was about to pick the Browns as home underdogs as I wasn't totally convinced by the Titans. Then I realized the Browns are 1-5 against the spread this season and are straight up 0-6.

Cowboys @ 49ers (+6)
They keep their games really close. They might actually pull this one out and make me a happy man.

Bengals @ Steelers (-5.5)

Broncos (+1) @ Chargers

Seahawks @ Giants (+5.5)

Falcons (+3.5) @ Patriots 
The Pats are 1-5 against the spread and have struggled mightily against the Jets, who are certainly not known for their high-powered offense. The Falcons, while not exactly running on all cylinders as of right now, are perhaps the best offense encountered by New England since Week 1.

Redskins @ Eagles (-4.5)
Oh man that first Redskins game was tough. I'm predicting this one will be close as well, but I feel we come out on top again.

Season so far: 40-51

Wednesday, October 18, 2017

NBA Wins Over/Under 2017-18

Last season, I got a very respectable 18 predictions right, for a 60% rate of success. I'd like to maintain that high percentage this year, but already I don't feel as good about many of those picks as I remember feeling last year.

Some texts might come later but the OVER/UNDER call is (now) set in stone.

Eastern Conference

Atlanta Hawks - 25.5 - OVER

Boston Celtics - 55.5 - UNDER
This is an ambitious number. I think Stevens will do as good a job as anyone would with such a new roster from one year to the next. There will be a lot of bumps in the road figuring out lineups and how to play together.

(DISCLAIMER, this was written before Hayward's injury, an injury that makes me f**king sad. I love Hayward and hopes he recovers 100% from that injury that I still haven't watched because I'm not watching that type of injury ever if I can avoid it).

Brooklyn Nets - 27.5 - OVER

Charlotte Hornets - 42.5 - OVER

Chicago Bulls - 22 - UNDER
That's very low, but we all know the Bulls aren't trying to win games and will achieve that goal quite easily.

Cleveland Cavaliers - 53.5 - UNDER
I don't see the same growing pains as I'm seeing with Boston, but I see an even worse defense than last season when they were horrendous. Isiah and Rose are bad defenders. Wade is old and won't be playing a lot. LeBron is LeCoast until the playoffs and clearly doesn't give a crap about the standings.

Detroit Pistons - 38.5 - UNDER
Hard one. I have a lot of respect for Stan Van Gundy as a coach, as I firmly believe he's in the top 6-7 coaches in the league. But I do no trust Jackson or Drummond. Not one bit.

Indiana Pacers - 31.5 - OVER

Miami Heat - 43.5 - UNDER
I feel alone thinking the Heat are not as good as so many experts and journalists make them out to be.

Milwaukee Bucks - 47.5 - UNDER
Feels 2-3 wins too high. Mid 40s makes more sense to me.

New York Knicks - 30.5 - UNDER

Orlando Magic - 33.5 - UNDER
How? How is it so high?

Philadelphia 76ers - 41.5 - OVER
Yes, this is not a rational take on the 76ers. They're more likely to go 36-46 than 42-40. This is wishful thinking from a very hopeful fan. The ceiling is clearly the low-mid 40s in a very weak conference. But it can all go wrong and they might win 34 games only as well. The future is bright though, that I'm certain about.

Toronto Raptors - 48.5 - UNDER

Washington Wizards - 48 - OVER

Western Conference

Dallas Mavericks - 35.5 - UNDER

Denver Nuggets - 45.5 - OVER

Golden State Warriors - 67.5 - OVER
How high would this number have to be to think about going under? 69.5 maybe? This tells me how "unfair" this team feels.

Houston Rockets - 55.5 - UNDER

Los Angeles Clippers - 43.5 - UNDER

Los Angeles Lakers - 33.5 - OVER

Memphis Grizzlies - 37.5 - OVER

Minnesota Timberwolves - 48.5 - OVER 

New Orleans Pelicans - 39.5 - OVER

Oklahoma City Thunder - 52 - OVER

Phoenix Suns - 29 - UNDER

Portland Trail Blazers - 42.5 - UNDER

Sacramento Kings - 27.5 - UNDER

San Antonio Spurs - 54.5 - OVER
I am thoroughly baffled that people pick against the Spurs in this case. I mean it's possible, but I'm never betting against Pop in those situations.

Utah Jazz - 41 - OVER