Thursday, October 19, 2017

NFL Lines - Week 7 predictions

Chiefs (-3) @ Raiders
This might another good TNF, but now we're not even sure the Raiders are good. It's a division matchup, on a short week, and the best team here is by far the Chiefs. Chiefs it is!

Cardinals @ Rams (-3.5)

Ravens @ Vikings (-6)

Panthers (-6) @ Bears

Jaguars @ Colts (+3)

Saints @ Packers (+5.5)

Jets @ Dolphins (-3)

Titans (-5.5) @ Browns
I was about to pick the Browns as home underdogs as I wasn't totally convinced by the Titans. Then I realized the Browns are 1-5 against the spread this season and are straight up 0-6.

Cowboys @ 49ers (+6)
They keep their games really close. They might actually pull this one out and make me a happy man.

Bengals @ Steelers (-5.5)

Broncos (+1) @ Chargers

Seahawks @ Giants (+5.5)

Falcons (+3.5) @ Patriots 
The Pats are 1-5 against the spread and have struggled mightily against the Jets, who are certainly not known for their high-powered offense. The Falcons, while not exactly running on all cylinders as of right now, are perhaps the best offense encountered by New England since Week 1.

Redskins @ Eagles (-4.5)
Oh man that first Redskins game was tough. I'm predicting this one will be close as well, but I feel we come out on top again.

Season so far: 40-51

Wednesday, October 18, 2017

NBA Wins Over/Under 2017-18

Last season, I got a very respectable 18 predictions right, for a 60% rate of success. I'd like to maintain that high percentage this year, but already I don't feel as good about many of those picks as I remember feeling last year.

Some texts might come later but the OVER/UNDER call is (now) set in stone.

Eastern Conference

Atlanta Hawks - 25.5 - OVER

Boston Celtics - 55.5 - UNDER
This is an ambitious number. I think Stevens will do as good a job as anyone would with such a new roster from one year to the next. There will be a lot of bumps in the road figuring out lineups and how to play together.

(DISCLAIMER, this was written before Hayward's injury, an injury that makes me f**king sad. I love Hayward and hopes he recovers 100% from that injury that I still haven't watched because I'm not watching that type of injury ever if I can avoid it).

Brooklyn Nets - 27.5 - OVER

Charlotte Hornets - 42.5 - OVER

Chicago Bulls - 22 - UNDER
That's very low, but we all know the Bulls aren't trying to win games and will achieve that goal quite easily.

Cleveland Cavaliers - 53.5 - UNDER
I don't see the same growing pains as I'm seeing with Boston, but I see an even worse defense than last season when they were horrendous. Isiah and Rose are bad defenders. Wade is old and won't be playing a lot. LeBron is LeCoast until the playoffs and clearly doesn't give a crap about the standings.

Detroit Pistons - 38.5 - UNDER
Hard one. I have a lot of respect for Stan Van Gundy as a coach, as I firmly believe he's in the top 6-7 coaches in the league. But I do no trust Jackson or Drummond. Not one bit.

Indiana Pacers - 31.5 - OVER

Miami Heat - 43.5 - UNDER
I feel alone thinking the Heat are not as good as so many experts and journalists make them out to be.

Milwaukee Bucks - 47.5 - UNDER
Feels 2-3 wins too high. Mid 40s makes more sense to me.

New York Knicks - 30.5 - UNDER

Orlando Magic - 33.5 - UNDER
How? How is it so high?

Philadelphia 76ers - 41.5 - OVER
Yes, this is not a rational take on the 76ers. They're more likely to go 36-46 than 42-40. This is wishful thinking from a very hopeful fan. The ceiling is clearly the low-mid 40s in a very weak conference. But it can all go wrong and they might win 34 games only as well. The future is bright though, that I'm certain about.

Toronto Raptors - 48.5 - UNDER

Washington Wizards - 48 - OVER

Western Conference

Dallas Mavericks - 35.5 - UNDER

Denver Nuggets - 45.5 - OVER

Golden State Warriors - 67.5 - OVER
How high would this number have to be to think about going under? 69.5 maybe? This tells me how "unfair" this team feels.

Houston Rockets - 55.5 - UNDER

Los Angeles Clippers - 43.5 - UNDER

Los Angeles Lakers - 33.5 - OVER

Memphis Grizzlies - 37.5 - OVER

Minnesota Timberwolves - 48.5 - OVER 

New Orleans Pelicans - 39.5 - OVER

Oklahoma City Thunder - 52 - OVER

Phoenix Suns - 29 - UNDER

Portland Trail Blazers - 42.5 - UNDER

Sacramento Kings - 27.5 - UNDER

San Antonio Spurs - 54.5 - OVER
I am thoroughly baffled that people pick against the Spurs in this case. I mean it's possible, but I'm never betting against Pop in those situations.

Utah Jazz - 41 - OVER

Tuesday, October 17, 2017

NFL Lines - Week 6 Results

Eagles @ Panthers (-3.5) 23 - X

Bears 27 @ Ravens (-6.5) 24 - X

Browns 17 @ Texans (-10) 33 - OK

Packers 10 @ Vikings (+3) 23 - OK
Yes, I "won" this one, but I don't feel good about it. I despise injuries.

Lions 38 @ Saints (-4.5) 52 - OK
WTF happened here?

Dolphins 20 @ Falcons (-12) 17 - X
The most surprising result of week? Most certainly.

Patriots 24 @ Jets (+10) 17 - OK
Fuck everything about that call in the end zone. Not a single person with half a brain thinks that ball belonged to the Pats after that play. I don't like the Jets, I don't care about the Pats but I was (and still am, thinking about it) livid about that decision. 

49ers (+10.5) 24 @ Redskins 26 - OK
Losing 5 games in a row by a total of 13 points. That's amazing.

Buccaneers (-2.5) 33 @ Cardinals 38 - X
Fun, but stupid note from this game. During the week I decided to drop a underperforming WR in fantasy. I saw J. Brown available and jumped on him. I had completely forgotten the Cards had two players named J. Brown and I got Jaron instead of John. To be fair Jaron had a few great weeks beforehand, so it's not like they were polar opposites or anything.

Rams 27 @ Jaguars (-2.5) 17 - X
Every time I decide to trust the Jaguars, they get beat. If I don't trust them, they blow up the other team. I'm not very good at this.

Steelers 19 @ Chiefs (-5) 13 - X
I severely underestimated the Steelers defense. Holy crap they are solid. And it seems like Bell's preseason is over and he's ready to play.

Chargers 17 @ Raiders (-3) 16 - X
Disclaimer, I thought here the Raiders would be slight favorites as there was no line last week as I typed the predictions. They were. I picked them before the game but did not edit the post. You'll have to trust me on this!

Man I trust the Raiders way more than I should. I think every one of their game this year I've guessed wrong. I'm starting to think last year was almost a fluke.

Giants 23 @ Broncos 10 (-12) - X
I did not finish this game, but my first thought was that the Broncos offense produce some good stuff (almost 400 yards passing) but couldn't close out their drives. Sometimes it was because of good Giants D, sometimes they missed FGs (twice, in fact). Impressive win by the Giants, but I don't think it means anything in the grand scheme of things.

Colts (+7.5) 22 @ Titans 36 - X
Disclaimer, there was no line this past week. I wrote that the Titans would be favorite by a few points (in my head, between 3-6). When I saw the 7.5 line, I picked the Colts but did not edit the post. You'll have to trust me on this.

I felt good about the Colts for most of the game, then it all unraveled when it mattered.

Week 6 results: 5-9 so far
2017 season so far: 40-51

Thursday, October 12, 2017

NFL Lines - Week 6 predictions

Eagles @ Panthers (-3.5)
Wait, will the best game of the week really be on a Thursday Night? Looking at this week's sleight, it really does look like it. Steelers @ Chiefs could be good, but Big Ben was so f***ing terrible last week I'm not sure anymore. 

Bears @ Ravens (-6.5)
That seems about right. I have a feeling this might be a very low scoring game, like 17-10 or along those lines. Two offenses that can't get going and two solid, if not very solid, defenses.

Browns @ Texans (-10)
Losing Watt and Mercilus is terrible for the Texans. Against the lowly Browns, their offense should be good enough. But their defense will most certainly struggle against better offenses in the future (hot take!). 

Packers @ Vikings (+3)
That's actually a very interesting matchup. 

Lions @ Saints (-4.5)

Dolphins @ Falcons (-12)

Patriots @ Jets (+10)
Got into an argument this week with one of my buddies who happens to be a Pats fan (weird people all over, right?) on a group chat. One other friend and I were simply defending the fact that this line was too high (it was -11 Pats at that moment). I believe my friend thought we were saying the Pats were bad or were going to lose that game (probably not) or that they weren't SB contenders (they are) or whatnot, because he got really defensive and spat out arguments and facts that had almost no relation to the line. It was a bit surreal. All we were saying is that from a gambling standpoint, this line was too high considering the teams in play. Clearly one can think this line can be too high and that the Pats are still SB contenders at the same time, which is my case. The Pats should definitely be favorites, only I believe it should be somewhere between 7.5 and 8.5. That does not mean they can't win by 32 (which they very well might), it just means I feel the line is too high. We all have that one friend who can't handle criticism directed at a favorite team or player and takes it as a personal attack. Oh well.

49ers (+10.5) @ Redskins
That's a much tougher one to call than I would have thought. I feel the Redskins are a good team, most likely a playoff contender. Opposing them are the 0-5 49ers. Makes sense that the line is double digit, right? Not so fast. The 49ers are in every single game, having lost the past 4 games by a total of 11 points. They'll stay relatively close here as well.

Buccaneers (-2.5) @ Cardinals

Rams @ Jaguars (-2.5)
Surprisingly, the Jags lead the NFL in point differential thanks to large margins of victory. At the same time, are they really as good as that stat indicates? I don't know, but this line is low enough that I'm willing to "risk" it.

Steelers @ Chiefs (-5)
Surprisingly low line here. The Steelers seem to get a lot of residual respect from Vegas even after being destroyed on their home field by Jacksonville. The Chiefs are clearly the superior team though.

Chargers @ Raiders
No line! I'm guessing the Raiders are favorite by 4-5 points (without Carr) and I'd take them here.

Giants @ Broncos (-12)
That game should have been a good one. It almost certainly won't be. A struggling quarterback with a depleted receiving corps against the best pass defense in the league. Yikes.

Colts @ Titans
No line! I'm thinking the Titans should be slight favorites here as well. 

2017 season so far: 35-42

Tuesday, October 10, 2017

NFL Lines - Week 5 results

Patriots 19 @ Bucs (+6) 14 - OK

Bills (+3) 16 @ Bengals 20 - X

Jets 17 @ Browns (-1) 14 - X

Panthers 27 @ Lions (-2.5) 24 - X
I'm guessing the Panthers are indeed back in contending form.

49ers (+1) 23 @ Colts 26 - X

Titans (-1) 10 @ Dolphins 16 - X

Chargers 27 @ Giants (-3) 22 - X
I'm willing to bet this would have gone differently if OBJ (and 42908 Giants players) hadn't fallen to injuries. Man, I know I'm supposed to want the Giants to lose as an Eagles fan, but this is just terrible.

Cardinals 7 @ Eagles (-6.5) 34 - OK
A rare good call by me this week. It was over after a quarter and Carson Wentz is indubitably the greatest quarterback and athlete in human history.

Jaguars 30 @ Steelers (-8) 9 - X
I do not believe I called either of those two teams' games right this year. I just can't understand what's going on. I don't think the Jaguars are that good, but the Steelers are certainly not contenders in the AFC if they keep playing like that. Man, that was a horrible display.

Seahawks 16 @ Rams (-1) 10 - X
Not convinced by this win for Seattle. Sure, the defense is extremely solid, but the offensive line is still incredibly shite.

Ravens 30 @ Raiders (-2.5) 17 - X

Packers (+2) 35 @ Cowboys 31 - OK

Chiefs (-1.5) 42 @ Texans 34 - OK
Man, the Texans just don't go away. Even against the best team in the NFL, it never did feel like the game was completely over.

Vikings 20 (-3.5) @ Bears 17 - X
Third game that ended within a point of the spread. It wasn't pretty on offense, but defense definitely shone.

This week: 4-10
2017 season so far: 35-42