Tuesday, September 19, 2017

NFL Lines - Week 2 results

This week was much better than the opening one (10-6 against 7-8). I was mostly happy with how my picks turned out, even if I grossly misjudged some teams.

Texans (+6) 13 @ Bengals 9 - OK
Came in time for the second half after a parents-teacher meeting. What a terrible game, but at least we had a superb highlight out of it when Watson bamboozled the whole Bengals defense with that long TD run. Other than that, the Bengals are really bad so far, with a staggering 4.5 points per game so far.

Cardinals 16 @ Colts (+7.5) 13 - OK
OVERTIME! That I missed when I closed DAZN for a few seconds. Did not look like a great game.

Patriots (-7) 36 @ Saints 20 - OK
Did not see that game, but was happy (for my fantasy team) Gronk exploded. Was not surprised the Pats blew out the Saints. Not at all.

Eagles (+6) @ Chiefs 27 - X
It was a very close game up until that unfortunate interception after Wentz' pass bounced off a linebacker's helmet right to the hands of a linesman. Then it kinda unraveled for the Eagles. A few bright spots for the birds as Jeffery came alive and our pass rush was mostly good. A late touchdown put the score back to a respectable (and ultimately more representative of the play disparity between both teams) 7 point loss. A glimmer of hope with that successful onside kick and the ensuing Hail Mary. The prayer ended up being slightly too long in a sea of arms.

Bears 7 @ Bucs (-7.0) 29 - OK 

Vikings (+5) 9 @ Steelers 26 - X

Browns 10 @ Ravens (-8) 24 - OK
I'm really happy the Ravens won (favourite AFC team, for anyone wondering), but really confused and frustrated at myself for putting Perriman into my lineup for a grand total of zero fantasy point. I should have left Gore in, I would have had about 10 points instead of zero. I'm dropping Perriman tomorrow. Two games, eight targets, one catch, fire yards. You see my point.

Bills (+8.5) 3 @ Panthers 9 - OK
That has to be the less convincing 2-0 start in recent memories by the Panthers.

Titans (-2) 37 @ Jaguars 16 - OK

Jets 20 @ Raiders (-13) 42 - OK

Dolphins 19 @ Chargers (-4) 17 - X

49ers 9 @ Seahawks (-14) 12 -X
Well that looked like a terrible game. There's no way I'm starting Russell Wilson next week, not with my second QB, future multiple time MVP Carson Wentz, throwing for 300+ yards like it was nothing every week. Seriously though, that offensive line is horrendous.

Cowboys 17 @ Broncos (+2.5) 42 - OK
The Broncos' defense is freakishly good. Sure, I don't think it was a great game plan by the Cowboys (yes, I'm still on the "Jason Garrett is not a very good coach" side of that debate) to have their 2nd year QB throw 50 times against arguably the best secondary in the NFL. To be fair, their run defense did their job against a world-class offensive line so there wasn't much to gain there anyway. I don't know what the Broncos' ceiling is right now, but I feel like it could be much higher than we all thought at the beginning of the season.

Redskins 27 @ Rams (-3) 20 - X

Packers 23 @ Falcons (-2.5) 34 - OK
The Falcons look every bit as deadly as they did last year, despite the best efforts from many "experts" to declare last year's performance a fluke (a criticism mostly aimed at Matt Ryan). Considering Seattle's absolutely horrendous offensive line, it's safe to say th

Lions 24 @ Giants (-3) 10 - X

This week: 10-6
Season so far: 17-14

Friday, September 15, 2017

NFL Lines - Week 2 predictions

Last week I was 7-8 against the spread, which isn't absolutely terrible, but certainly not what anyone would call good. This week, I changed the source for the lines after a discussion with a friend who does his gambling on another website. His lines were often up to 2 points larger or smaller than the ones I had. This actually made things harder for certain lines. For example, the Raiders line on that other website was -15, here it's -13. At -15 I probably would have taken the points for the Jets, as 2+ touchdowns is a lot. 13 points is just low enough for me to pick the Raiders. In any case, here are my picks.

Texans (+6) @ Bengals
Both teams have crapped the bed in the first game, losing their respective game by 23 and 20 points. I expect both to bounce back, but I trust the Texans a bit more.

Cardinals @ Colts (+7.5)
I switched this pick a few times, but then realized that the Cardinals played a poor game last week and their best offensive player is injured. So it will likely be a low-scoring affair, 13-7 or something.

Patriots (-7) @ Saints
I can't see the Pats starting 0-2 just yet. If it happens I wouldn't be that surprised, but I'm not expecting such a thing to occur.

Eagles (+6) @ Chiefs
This will be a tough one, but I think our D line keeps us close enough, and perhaps put us over the top. My money would be on a 3 or 4-point win by the Chiefs.

Bears @ Bucs (-7.0)
The Bucs haven't played a regular season game yet so they might be rusty, but they have much, much more talent than the Bears and should win their first game handily.

Vikings (+5) @ Steelers
I always feel like the Vikings are overlooked, and I don't think they should be. The line is actually closer than I would have expected, given the mad respect people usually have for Pittsburgh, but I still feel the Vikings can cover and perhaps win.

Browns @ Ravens (-8)
While the Browns' cover last week was impressive, I doubt they can do the same in one of the toughest home fields in the NFL.

Bills (+8.5) @ Panthers
I'm not yet sold on the Panthers. I like the team, I like Cam and they have as a linebacker perhaps my favourite non-Eagles player to watch, Luke Kuechly. I also believe the Bills are actually a decent team,

Titans (-2) @ Jaguars
This is another one I changed my mind on a few times. The Jaguars had an impressive performance last week, registering 10 (!!) sacks against a struggling Houston team. The Titans are a superior team and the line is basically a pick'em at this point.

Jets @ Raiders (-13)
13 points is a lot. Then again, the Jets aren't very good and the Raiders are definitely a top team in the AFC and they're at home. On that absolutely scorching take, I'm picking the Raiders.

Dolphins @ Chargers (-4)
These are two teams I know little about. I'm basing that pick on absolutely nothing except that the Chargers play at home in that "tiny" stadium of theirs.

49ers @ Seahawks (-14)
Man that line is high. Then again, the 49ers have lost 7 straight games to the Seahawks and games played in the state of Washington tend to be blowouts. That's what I'm expecting here.

Cowboys @ Broncos (+2.5)
In a matchup between an amazing offense and an amazing defense, I always pick the amazing defense. Always.

Redskins @ Rams (-3)
The Redskins showed flashes agains the Eagles last week, but except for a few good plays by Josh Norman, the defense looked mediocre. I haven't seen the Rams play last week and you can't put that much stock into beating the poor Colts, but they're definitely a better team in 2017 than they were in 2016.

Packers @ Falcons (-2.5)
Man, what a game this might turn out to be. Signs point to a offensive fest, but so often those games end up being defensive struggles. I'm hyped for this one, that's for certain.

Lions @ Giants (-3)
With the talent surrounding them in the NFC East, this is almost already a must-win for the Giants. If OBJ is ready to go, they won't lose two weeks in a row.

Tuesday, September 12, 2017

NFL Lines - Week 1 results

Overall, it was not a great week for me trying to pick the spread (5-7). Even picking an outright winner didn't work as well as I'd hoped (Texans, Pats, Cards, Bengals, Seahawks and Giants all lost games I'd thought they'd win.

Chiefs (+9.0) 42 @ Patriots 27 - OK

Jets 12 @ Bills (-7.5) 21 - OK

Cardinals (-1.5) 23 @ Lions 35 - X

Eagles (-1.5) 30 @ Redskins 17 - OK
F*** yeah! And the Eagles defense scored 25 points for me in fantasy, more than any other player.

Jaguars 29 @ Texans (-6) 7 - X
Hey now, I was only 28 points off on this one. Not that bad right? Right?

Raiders (+2) 26 @ Titans 16 - OK

Steelers (-9) 21 @ Browns 18 - X
Much tighter than I think anybody expected.

Falcons (-7) 23 @ Bears 17 - X

Ravens 20 @ Bengals (-3) 0 (PUSH) - X
You don't see a shutout that often in this league. Impressive stuff by the Ravens.

Colts 9 @ Rams (-3.5) 46 - OK
The Colts are not very good at football for an NFL team. That's my hot take of the week.

Panthers (-5.5) 23@ 49ers 3 - OK
Neither are the 49ers.

Seahawks (+3.0) 9 @ Green Bay 17 - X
That Seahawks defense is absolutely ridiculous. I was amazed that the Packers managed to score that many points.

Giants (+4) 3 @ Cowboys 19 - X
Ezekiel Elliot is a freaking monster. At times, he shredded what was the second best defense in the League in 2016. It's insane.

Oh, and the Giants can't do shit on offense without Beckham it seems. I'm guessing next match between both team will be very, very different if he's 100%.

Saints 19 @ Vikings (-3.5) 29 - OK

Chargers 21 @ Broncos (-3.5) 24 - X


This week: 7-8
Season so far: 7-8

Saturday, September 9, 2017

NFL Week 1 Picks

As the season progresses, I might have longer write-ups for individual games. For now, I'm just pointing out general impressions.

Chiefs (+9.0) @ Patriots

I'm certain the Chiefs will cover even if they lose, but I still predict a relatively close game.

Jets @ Bills (-7.5)

The Jets are just terrible, I don't feel okay picking them any time soon. Also, I have Shady McCoy on my fantasy so I want him to go for 25 rushes, 168 yards and 2 TDs. At least.

Cardinals (-1.5) @ Lions 

As I think will be the case with the Panthers, the Cardinals are too good of a team to have another sub-500 season. I have no grasp on the Lions yet though. I see the talent, especially on offense, but I don't know whether it'll come together.

Eagles (-1.5) @ Redskins

Extremely surprising line, as I think the Redskins and my team, the Eagles, are very closely matched and homefield usually reigns supreme in such cases. I like my team still, so I'll take it in a very close game.

Jaguars @ Texans (-6)

Perhaps the toughest matchup for me to pick this week. Ultimately, the Jaguars almost always disappoint and JJ Watt is back. So there.

Raiders (+2) @ Titans

Another very interesting matchup. The Titans are supposed to be much better this year and the Raiders are picked by many experts to regress a little bit. This is probably why the line is in the Titans' favour. I'm not sold just yet, although I do expect a very close game.

Steelers (-9) @ Browns

The Steelers are arguably the most loaded team in the league on offense and are more than competent on defense. The Browns are the Browns.

Falcons (-7) @ Bears

I really like the Bears and I would love to see them be a good football team again, but the Falcons are much, much better. This might be a blowout.

Ravens @ Bengals (-3) (PUSH)

Seems like the perfect line for this matchup, one of the most interesting of the weekend for me (the Ravens are my "official" favourite AFC team).

Colts @ Rams (-3.5)

This is one game I have zero interest in. The Rams' defense should reign supreme over the Colts.

Panthers (-5.5) @ 49ers

I believe in a Panthers' bounce back season this year. If Cam and Luke are healthy, they should be right there with the Packers and Seahawks atop the NFC in January.

Seahawks (+3.0) @ Green Bay

This is the best game of the week, and I can't see any of these team winning by more than 3-4 points. I trust the Seahawks slightly more than I do the Packers though as, in my book, defense trumps offense most of the time.

Giants (+4) @ Cowboys

I know Ezekiel is playing this weekend, but the Giants play the Cowboys so well. I feel they are arguably the best team in the always very competitive NFC East. This is going to be a fun one!

Saints @ Vikings (-3.5)

Two teams I know very little about here, as both have been mediocre for a few years now and aren't usually featured at length in podcasts or on national TV (not that it matters this year for me). I do however trust defensive teams more than offensive ones.

Chargers @ Broncos (-3.5)

I don't have a good feel on either these teams I don't watch that regularly, but I know the Broncos have an insanely talented defense. Also this game is so late there's no chance I'm watching more than maybe a quarter.

Thursday, September 7, 2017

NFL wins over/under predictions for the 2017 season

I don't feel nearly as confident doing this as I did last year for the NBA where I only got 60% right, so I'm not expecting incredible results. It'll be fun nonetheless.

AFC

Jets - 4.5
My pick: UNDER

Patriots - 12.5
My pick: OVER

Bills - 6.0
My pick: EVEN

Dolphins - 7.5
My pick: OVER

Texans - 8.5
My pick: UNDER

Colts - 9.0
My pick: UNDER

Titans - 8.5
My pick: OVER

Jaguars - 6.0
My pick: UNDER

Bengals - 8.5
My pick: OVER

Ravens - 9.0
My pick: EVEN

Steelers - 10.5
My pick: OVER

Browns - 4.5
My pick: UNDER

Chargers - 7.5
My pick: OVER

Broncos - 8.5
My pick: UNDER

Chiefs - 9.0
My pick: OVER

Raiders - 10
My pick: EVEN

NFC

Giants - 9.0
My pick: Over

Eagles - 8.0
My pick: My heart says WAAAAY OVER but it's more likely to be EVEN.

Cowboys - 9.5
My pick: UNDER

Redskins - 7.5
My pick: UNDER

Falcons - 9.5
My pick: OVER

Panthers - 8.5
My pick: OVER

Saints - 8.0
My pick: UNDER

Buccaneers - 8.5
My pick: OVER

Bears - 5.5
My pick: UNDER

Packers - 10
My pick: OVER

Vikings - 8.5
My pick: UNDER

Lions - 8.0
My pick: EVEN

Rams - 5.5
My pick: UNDER

49ers - 4.5
My pick: UNDER

Seahawks - 10.5
My pick: OVER

Cardinals - 8.0
My pick: OVER


Here we are! I'm hoping for 16 our of 32. I don't have any money on this, but going even would be cool.