Last season, I got a very respectable 18 predictions right, for a 60% rate of success. I'd like to maintain that high percentage this year, but already I don't feel as good about many of those picks as I remember feeling last year.
Some texts might come later but the OVER/UNDER call is (now) set in stone.
Eastern Conference
Atlanta Hawks - 25.5 - OVER
Boston Celtics - 55.5 - UNDER
This is an ambitious number. I think Stevens will do as good a job as anyone would with such a new roster from one year to the next. There will be a lot of bumps in the road figuring out lineups and how to play together.
(DISCLAIMER, this was written before Hayward's injury, an injury that makes me f**king sad. I love Hayward and hopes he recovers 100% from that injury that I still haven't watched because I'm not watching that type of injury ever if I can avoid it).
Brooklyn Nets - 27.5 - OVER
Charlotte Hornets - 42.5 - OVER
Chicago Bulls - 22 - UNDER
That's very low, but we all know the Bulls aren't trying to win games and will achieve that goal quite easily.
Cleveland Cavaliers - 53.5 - UNDER
I don't see the same growing pains as I'm seeing with Boston, but I see an even worse defense than last season when they were horrendous. Isiah and Rose are bad defenders. Wade is old and won't be playing a lot. LeBron is LeCoast until the playoffs and clearly doesn't give a crap about the standings.
Detroit Pistons - 38.5 - UNDER
Hard one. I have a lot of respect for Stan Van Gundy as a coach, as I firmly believe he's in the top 6-7 coaches in the league. But I do no trust Jackson or Drummond. Not one bit.
Indiana Pacers - 31.5 - OVER
Miami Heat - 43.5 - UNDER
I feel alone thinking the Heat are not as good as so many experts and journalists make them out to be.
Milwaukee Bucks - 47.5 - UNDER
Feels 2-3 wins too high. Mid 40s makes more sense to me.
New York Knicks - 30.5 - UNDER
Orlando Magic - 33.5 - UNDER
How? How is it so high?
Philadelphia 76ers - 41.5 - OVER
Yes, this is not a rational take on the 76ers. They're more likely to go 36-46 than 42-40. This is wishful thinking from a very hopeful fan. The ceiling is clearly the low-mid 40s in a very weak conference. But it can all go wrong and they might win 34 games only as well. The future is bright though, that I'm certain about.
Toronto Raptors - 48.5 - UNDER
Washington Wizards - 48 - OVER
Western Conference
Dallas Mavericks - 35.5 - UNDER
Denver Nuggets - 45.5 - OVER
Golden State Warriors - 67.5 - OVER
How high would this number have to be to think about going under? 69.5 maybe? This tells me how "unfair" this team feels.
Houston Rockets - 55.5 - UNDER
Los Angeles Clippers - 43.5 - UNDER
Los Angeles Lakers - 33.5 - OVER
Memphis Grizzlies - 37.5 - OVER
Minnesota Timberwolves - 48.5 - OVER
New Orleans Pelicans - 39.5 - OVER
Oklahoma City Thunder - 52 - OVER
Phoenix Suns - 29 - UNDER
Portland Trail Blazers - 42.5 - UNDER
Sacramento Kings - 27.5 - UNDER
San Antonio Spurs - 54.5 - OVER
I am thoroughly baffled that people pick against the Spurs in this case. I mean it's possible, but I'm never betting against Pop in those situations.
Utah Jazz - 41 - OVER
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